WILD CARD ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS VS. TITANS

Like most fans, I didn't want to see the Patriots playing this weekend after it seemed inevitable that they had the 2 seed locked up.  Yet, here we are getting ready to play wild card weekend.  No extra rest for the walking wounded, instead an 8:15 game against Tennessee. 

Instead of looking at all the success the Patriots have had in past playoff games, I'm going to focus this post solely on this season and last year's loss at Nissan Field.

EARLY LEAD-​  The best thing the Patriots can do today is give it their all to take an early lead.  For this season they are 9-1 when they score first, 10-0 when they lead at the half, and 11-0 when they lead after 3.  Should the Patriots win the coin toss they need to elect to take the ball.  In years' past the team was masterful at the double score surrounding halftime.  Those days are gone and we are more likely to get a double score to start the game.

Earlier this week I took a deep dive into seeing what happens on New England's first possession coming out of the half.  It isn't good, we punt 50% of the time and half of those are 3 and outs.  Here's a quick look at what has happened this year on specific possessions.

Patriots-
First Possession of Game-

• 5 TD
• 1 FG
• 1 Fumble
• 1 turnover on downs
• 8 punts

Last Possession of Half-

• 1 TD
• 4 FG
• 1 missed FG
• 1 blocked FG
• 4 punts
• 5 accomplished nothing either due to time or questionable calls

​First Possession of Second Half-

• 5 TD
• 1 FG
• 1 missed FG
• 1 fumble returned for a TD
• 8 punts

If you are looking at these and thinking that the offense looks pretty much the same at the beginning of the game and the beginning of the half, you are correct for the most part.  If we look to see how many double scores we had in games, there was a total of 3.  All of them were a field goal at the half followed by a touchdown to start the second half.  Next up is a look at how our opponents faired to start both halves.

First Possession of the Game-

• 2 TD
• 2 FG
• 3 INT
• 8 punts
• 1 turnover on downs

First Possession of Second Half-

• 3 TD
• 3 FG
• 5 INT
• 5 punts

In my opinion aiming for a score first and a score second before the opponent knows what hit them is a much better tactic for this team.  

FAMILIARITY-  At this point, I think there is enough tape on the Vrabel coached Titans that familiarity with what the Patriots do goes out the window.  Vrabel might not be intimidated by Belichick like some coaches, but he isn't playing with insider information anymore.  In reality Belichick probably knows more about the Titans from the joint practices earlier this summer.  Additionally, players like Logan Ryan, Dion Lewis and Cody Hollister are pretty well-know commodities to our sideline.  

SPECIAL TEAMS-  Our special teams played horrible on that piece of crap, grub infested, injury inducing, thing called Nissan Fieldlast year.  The Titans are 8 for 18 on field goal attempts.  Their current kicker hasn't attempted a field goal this season as he was just signed to the team a few weeks ago when Succop went on IR.  In his 2 games Greg Joseph is 9 for 9 in PATs.  Last season Joseph made 80% of his field goal attempts while playing for the Browns.  He has made 6 of 8 attempts on the road in his career. 
When it comes to punters, Brett Kern and Jake Bailey are almost duplicates of each other.  Kern is slightly better when it comes to keeping opponents inside the 20 while players returning Bailey's punts have had less success. 
The Patriots lead the league in blocked punts while the Titans lead the league in blocked field goals.  

DEFENSE-  Everything about the Patriots' defense was bad last Sunday.  The game plan, assuming there was one, was horrible.  The players all played off of everyone and couldn't make tackles if their lives depended on it.  For most of the starters I would have to say it was their worst game of the season.  I would be completely shocked if this week's defense looked anything like what we saw last week.  The big key will be to tackling Derrick Henry before he gets a full head of steam.  While Henry is fast, great at evading tackles, and has a powerful stiff arm, he also has a bad hamstring.  Assuming the Patriots aren't down two scores and trying to steal a possession, I don't anticipate them swiping at the ball instead of wrapping him up.  Should the game be close, I think we are due for a Duron Harmon 4th quarter interception.

OFFENSE- Besides scoring first, what we do need to see today is some better ball security.  10-1 when we win the turnover battle and 2-3 when we don't.  The Titans have scored 20 points off turnovers this season and not given up any.  The Patriots have scored 32 while their opponents have scored 35.  Instead of trying to get everyone going, it would be nice to see the Patriots go with what is working and making the Titans stop them.  The offensive line is finally playing like we need them to and we need to ride them to Miami.  Run the ball with a healthy dose of Michel, Bolden and Burkhead and use play action to get the ball to Harry, Myers and dare I say maybe a deep ball to Slater?