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PATRIOTS' OFFENSE STRUGGLING AFTER ADJUSTMENTS

12/31/2019

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Going into the half and coming out with adjustments has been the Patriots' thing for as far as I can remember.  It was one of the reasons why Belichick would always defer the ball until the second half.  Sure, now everyone does it, but it was a Belichick move early on.  Regardless of whether or not a team receives the kickoff at the half, their first possession following halftime should be productive.  Here's a look at what's been going on with the Patriots this year.  
​FIRST POSSESSION AFTER THE HALF- Coming out of the half the Patriots' first possessions have looked like this:
  • 5 TD
  • 1 FG
  • 1 missed FG
  • 1 fumble which was returned for a TD
  • 8 punts
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think we are winning the halftime adjustment battle.  When it comes to punts per drive the Patriots are ranked 25th with punts occuring 43.8% of the time.  Since Belichick is big on field position and the Patriots have had some kicking issues, I think that ranking and percentage is skewed a bit higher.  Regardless, in our first possession after the half we are punting 50% of the time.  After adjustments, one would assume that there would be a significantly lower percentage of punts occuring.  
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EARLY PUNTS- All punts are not created equal.  Sometimes you move the ball and get stalled so you choose to pin your opponent inside their 10.  Yes, that must be it.  The Patriots are great at pinning opponents inside their 10, so why chance a field goal with the kicker of the week?  

Over the course of the season the Patriots have had 3 and outs on 20% of their drives.  The average in the NFL this season is a 3 and out 20.9% of the time.  Four of the Patriots' punts after the half have been 3 and outs.  So, 25% of the time they start the second half with a 3 and out.  Again, this should occur less since the offense has had a chance to make adjustments.  

If you were wondering if the other 4 punts came after long drives, sorry to disappoint.  Two punts occured after 4 plays and 2 occured after 5 plays. 

RANDOM OTHER FACTS-
  • 3 of the 3 and outs were at home
  • 4 punts were at home
  • 2 touchdowns were at home
  • both the field goal and missed field goal were at home
  • immediately after the half the Patriots' defense has had- 3 TD and 3 FG scored against them, 5 punts (2 3 and outs) and 5 INT  
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