With the game in Foxboro and a rainy weather report, I don't think the Patriots will be on the losing end of today's turnover battle. This season the Patriots led the league with the fewest number of turnovers(13) while the Colts were 29th (31 turnovers).
PENALTIES- During the last meeting the Patriots were penalized 5 times for 53 yards while the Colts were penalized 4 times for 27 yards. Whether you look at the number of penalties or yards they gave up the Patriots were on the losing end.
With the inconsistency of the refereeing, I just hope the men in stripes do a better job than the crew did last week. In addition to missing some obvious calls which took away first from the Patriots at the start of both halves, they also missed the obvious holding call pictured below. With this being the first play from scrimmage for the Ravens, it really helped them get off to a good start.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE- Yes, we all know how good the Patriots are at home. If you remember how bad the Patriots defense looked trying to play on a watered down field in Kansas City this year, that's what I'm picturing from the Colts today. Playing defense on a wet field is always hard. Playing on an opponents wet field is even harder.
COLTS CAN'T STOP THE RUN-Assuming the Patriots choose to run the ball, the Colts won't be able to stop them. Having a wet field today will actually help the Patriots offensive line. If the Colts make a concerted effort to try and stop the run, Brady is likely to have a wide open Gronk. At this point in the season I am relatively confident that Brady is done forcing the ball to Gronkowski and will instead find an alternative as needed. Unlike the Patriots' defense which bends but doesn't break, the Colts' defense does both.
COLTS CAN'T RUN-Last time the Colts faced the Patriots they had 19 yards rushing. While I'm sure they will do better than that today, it won't be good enough. The Colts will be without leading rusher Trent Richardson . I have also personally put a jinx on Daniel Herron by putting him on my fanduel team today. Yeah, that's how I roll. When the Colts try and run the ball they typically go up the middle. I don't think Big Vince Wilfork will be having any of that today because that is how he rolls.
PATRIOTS DEFENSE- Last week the Patriots defense didn't play that well. I don't expect another dud of a game for Matt Patricia's unit. Of the duds last week, Darrelle Revis was probably the biggest. I expect a big game from him today. It is worth noting that 26 of Luck's 38 touchdown passes this season have been to the sideline. With Revis and Brandon Browner patrolling the sidelines, I don't see that as a feasible option.
DECEPTION READY-This season the Colts pulled off 3 onside kicks with two of them coming early in the game with a lead. While I can't guarantee the Colts are going to attempt this today, I'll guarantee you that the Patriots are ready for it.
KARMA- The Patriots have it and the Colts don't. The Colts have been distracted by their players off the field actions this week, while it's pretty much been business as usual in New England. In addition to doing my duty by playing some key Colts on my fantasy team and not playing key Patriots, I've also made sure some of my unlucky friends are dressed to jinx the Colts. While I can't guarantee that it is going to happen, I've reached out to The Hoodie's girlfriend to make sure he is appropriately dressed with his sleeves cut off.