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WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL BEAT THE COLTS TODAY

1/18/2015

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We all know that the last time the New England Patriots played the Indianapolis Colts the Patriots came out with a 42- 20 victory and Jonas Gray had the game of his life.  While the final score and some Rob Gronkowski highlights showed a complete domination of the Colts, the Patriots still had many mistakes to overcome.
TURNOVERS- One of the mistakes the Patriots had to overcome was Tom Brady's interception heading into halftime.  Instead of the Patriots going into the half with a 14-3 lead, they gave 7 points and lots of momentum back to the home team.  This was Brady's second interception of the game.  The first occurred during the first quarter with the Patriots up 7-3 and about to cross over into enemy territory.  At the end of the day the Patriots lost the turnover battle 2-1.

With the game in Foxboro and a rainy weather report, I don't think the Patriots will be on the losing end of today's turnover battle.  This season the Patriots led the league with the fewest number of turnovers(13) while the Colts were 29th (31 turnovers).

PENALTIES- During the last meeting the Patriots were penalized 5 times for 53 yards while the Colts were penalized 4 times for 27 yards.  Whether you look at the number of penalties or yards they gave up the Patriots were on the losing end.  

With the inconsistency of the refereeing, I just hope the men in stripes do a better job than the crew did last week.  In addition to missing some obvious calls which took away first from the Patriots at the start of both halves, they also missed the obvious holding call pictured below.  With this being the first play from scrimmage for the Ravens, it really helped them get off to a good start. 

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Chandler Jones misses out on a strip sack as he got held on the first play of the game against the Ravens.
WE HAVE HEALTHY WEAPONS- Although the Patriots lost Steven Ridley to a knee injury early in the season, they are relatively healthy.  Most importantly, Rob Gronkowski is in good health.  Moreover, the Patriots are not relying on just two or three players to get the job done.  Instead they have multiple players at multiple positions who have the trust of Tom Brady.  With the 6th fewest percentage of drops, I'd say they have his trust for good reason.  Although Luck led the league in yards this season, his teammates were almost dead last with their percent of drops (6.2).   
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE- Yes, we all know how good the Patriots are at home.  If you remember how bad the Patriots defense looked trying to play on a watered down field in Kansas City this year, that's what I'm picturing from the Colts today.  Playing defense on a wet field is always hard.  Playing on an opponents wet field is even harder. 
COLTS CAN'T STOP THE RUN-Assuming the Patriots choose to run the ball, the Colts won't be able to stop them.  Having a wet field today will actually help the Patriots offensive line.  If the Colts make a concerted effort to try and stop the run, Brady is likely to have a wide open Gronk.  At this point in the season I am relatively confident that Brady is done forcing the ball to Gronkowski and will instead find an alternative as needed. Unlike the Patriots' defense which bends but doesn't break, the Colts' defense does both.
COLTS CAN'T RUN-Last time the Colts faced the Patriots they had 19 yards rushing.  While I'm sure they will do better than that today, it won't be good enough.  The Colts will be without leading rusher Trent Richardson .  I have also personally put a jinx on Daniel Herron by putting him on my fanduel team today.  Yeah, that's how I roll.  When the Colts try and run the ball they typically go up the middle.  I don't think Big Vince Wilfork will be having any of that today because that is how he rolls. 
PATRIOTS DEFENSE- Last week the Patriots defense didn't play that well.  I don't expect another dud of a game for Matt Patricia's unit.  Of the duds last week, Darrelle Revis was probably the biggest.  I expect a big game from him today.  It is worth noting that 26 of Luck's 38 touchdown passes this season have been to the sideline.  With Revis and Brandon Browner patrolling the sidelines, I don't see that as a feasible option.
DECEPTION READY-This season the Colts pulled off 3 onside kicks with two of them coming early in the game with a lead.  While I can't guarantee the Colts are going to attempt this today, I'll guarantee you that the Patriots are ready for it.  
KARMA- The Patriots have it and the Colts don't.  The Colts have been distracted by their players off the field actions this week, while it's pretty much been business as usual in New England.  In addition to doing my duty by playing some key Colts on my fantasy team and not playing key Patriots, I've also made sure some of my unlucky friends are dressed to jinx the Colts.  While I can't guarantee that it is going to happen, I've reached out to The Hoodie's girlfriend to make sure he is appropriately dressed with his sleeves cut off. 

 
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