WHAT TO EXPECT: PATRIOTS AT CHIEFS

Stevan Ridley secures the ball after Tom Brady hands it off

Tonight the 2-1 Patriots head into Arrowhead Stadium to take on the 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs.  They should leave the Show Me state one game up in the AFC East and in control of their own destiny when it comes to home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  While that is what should happen, you just never know what will happen with the Patriots these days.

The other day I wrote about the importance of the Patriots running a more simplified offense for the time being.  I do believe that this is the key for the Patriots at this point in the season, especially in Kansas City.  Even with Jamaal Charles back in the lineup and playing at home, the Chiefs are not good enough to beat the Patriots.  With this being said, they are good enough to capitalize on Patriots' mistakes and take time off the clock to close out a game.  Because of this, the Patriots can not afford to fool around and let the Chiefs stay in the game.  They need to start the game strong and finish strong on both sides of the ball.  

Another key to tonight's game will be the acting of Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley.  They need to help each other (and themselves) out by selling plays better.  There have been multiple times this season when they have just gone through the motions of the play thereby leaving the other player out to dry.  If they both consistently sell the plays tonight, then we might finally see some big yardage gains either from Ridley or maybe in the air.  Of course when we do have someone wide open downfield Brady needs to get the ball there.  Heading into this weekend, the Chiefs were one of the worst teams when it came to giving up big rushing plays with 14 of them.  Conversely, the Patriots have only converted 6 big rushing plays on the the offensive side of the ball.  If not for some untimely offensive holding penalties, that number would be a bit bigger.

Speaking of penalties, that is the other thing the Patriots need to take care of tonight.  No more stupid penalties!  While the team has been great when it comes to turnovers (0 interceptions and 0 rushing fumbles- best in the league), they have a season's worth of negative penalty yards already.  If you're wondering where the 3 turnovers from the Miami game have gone, two were strip sacks and one was on a blocked punt.  So when you at the leaders for least amount of fumbles and interceptions, the Patriots are leading the way with zero.

Another category that the Patriots are leading the way at so far this season is drops. While KC players drop 6.1% of their passes, the Patriots are tops in the league with only 1.8%. When you look that their offensive statistics they are really all over the place at this point. They are either in the top five or bottom five for almost every category.

Although my prediction last week was way off, I'm still going to give you one this week.

Patriots Chiefs

30 Points 6

429 Yards 270

1 Turnovers 2

3 Sacks 1

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