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WEEK 16 ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS VS. BILLS

12/23/2018

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If you look at the final scores for the Patriots this season, their 25-6 victory over the Bills appears to be one of the few victories that they had in hand. If you look back at the game, it was really a nail biter which could have gone either way.
The game in late October was full of incompetence in the redzone as the team settled for field goals two times after being lined up in first and goal situations. If not for an impressive 84 yard pick 6 by Devin McCourty, this could have been a one score game late in the 4th. If the today’s offense looks anywhere close to what it did in upstate New York, there will be a lot of boobirds at Gillette.
HOMECOMING FOR OFFENSE, NOT SO FAST- Just like every other Patriots enthusiast, I really need to see the Patriots offense put on a dominant showing. Looking at the Bills’ 5-9 record, it seems like today is the day. Well, looks may be deceiving folks, as the Bills have one of the better defenses in the league. They are ranked 9th with stopping the run as they’ve given up 104.8 yards per game. Against the pass they are even better with a league leading 187.4 yards against. One place where the Bills’ defense struggles and the Patriots’ offense generally thrives is scoring in the second quarter.
OFFENSIVE PLAY-CALLING- Every year it seems like McDaniels gets into the habit of running plays only to see what the other team does or to mess with other defenses down the road. When he pulls this crap and the team consistently puts up 30+ points, it’s not an issue. When he does it and it results in one short non-scoring possession after another, we’ve got a problem.

In my couch-side observation, I think McDaniels has fallen into this trap lately.

LESS REX PLEASE- This week McDaniels said that they need to get James White more involved. All of New England agreed and quickly pointed out that he can’t get very involved from the sideline. While he’s not a bad player, there isn’t much room on the offensive side of the ball for Rex Burkhead. If only the guy calling the plays and creating the offensive packages could see this. At this point in the season Michel, White, and Patterson are all averaging 4.3 yards per carry while Rex is averaging 3.4.
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CONTAIN JOSH ALLEN- Allen has nothing to lose today in his first game against the Patriots. Hopefully that means he makes some rookie mistakes that the Patriots defense can turn into points. Not afraid to take off with the ball, he has over 500 rushing yards in 10 games. In his last 4 starts he has run for 99 (JAX), 135 (MIA), 101 (NYJ), and 16 (DET) yards respectively. This season the Patriots have only yielded 100 yards on the ground twice. Both of those games were losses.
HOME SWEET TURF- The Patriots are 6-0 at home and 8-1 on turf. Their only turf loss was against the Lions. Whether it’s the consistency of footing or regularity of timing when on turf, both the offense and defense have been pretty crappy on grass this year.
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