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PATRIOTS VS. SAINTS - WINNER GOES TO 2-1

9/26/2021

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After week one, the matchup of the Patriots and Saints looked like it was going to be a really tough home game for New England.  Then came week two and suddenly the Saints' lopsided takedown of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looked like a total fluke.  Since Vegas currently has the Patriots sitting at -3, I'd say they are thinking it will be a tight game after all.  
QUARTERBACK PLAY- Although he's known to air it up, Jameis Winston has actually been making a lot of throws behind the line of scrimmage these days.  That being said, do not be surprised when he chucks a pass 50 yards down the middle of the field to Patriots' safety Devin McCourty.  Looking through Winston's pass attempts throughout the years, the middle of the field seems to be where he likes to go deep. 

After not having any end zone pass attempts in his first two starts, I think we me finally see one or two from Mac Jones this week.  While he's been great at moving the chains and protecting the ball, Josh definitely needs to give Mac some end zone throws before the playing field is clogged up with bodies.

QUARTERBACK PREDICTION- Winston throws more picks than Mac throws touchdowns.  Jalen Mills has a hand in at least one of them.

SEEING RED- Season stats after two games are a crapshoot.  No matter the time, red zone stats are also hard to compare if you are just looking at the results.  Regardless, the Saints are currently a top ten offense and defense inside the 20 while the Patriots are a league worst 32nd on offense.  Having actually watched the Patriots games, I'd agree that the red zone is a bit of a problem for this year's Patriots team.  It was also a problem for them last season (24th) and in 2019 (26th).  
FANTASY BACKS- We've all been burnt by an opponent having Alvin Kamara on their fantasy team.  After having a decent game week 1, Kamara struggled last week.  Will this be a bounce back game for him?  I highly doubt it as I'm sure Belichick is still considering him the number one threat and we all know what Belichick does to an opponent's "go to" guy.  Although the Patriots running game is currently in the middle of the pack, our running backs are still a huge part of our offense.  James White currently leads the team with both receptions and receiving yards.  When it comes to fantasy points he's actually ahead of Kamara. 

NOT THE STRENGTH THAT WAS EXPECTED- The Patriots offensive line was expected to be a strength this season.  Two games in, it is far from it.  Although Mac has only been sacked 4 times, he's been hit way too often.  If we were to go through the tape and highlight guys not doing their jobs, we can easily go to the tape of the offensive line.  Two games in, the line is responsible for 5 penalties (Wynn with 3).  At this point, Trent Brown is still questionable with a calf injury.  HIgh expectations were also expected for the Saints offensive line.  Like the Patriots, they have been without a key starter due to a calf injury.  The Saints will continue to be without their starting center, Erik McCoy.  Second year player Cesar Ruiz will once again be sliding over from his right guard position to snap the ball.  

WATCH OUT FOR- The Patriots defense needs to be ready for two potential game changers.  One is the wildcat offense with Taysom Hill in the game.  Hill has been on the field for 32 offensive plays this season.  In his 4 rushing attempts he's gathered 17 yards and 2 first downs.  He's also had one pass attempt which went for another first down.  The other game changer is a total Bill Belichick guy, Chris Hogan.  Did you know he used to play lacrosse?  Nicknamed 7-11 because he's always open, the former Patriot has an uncanny ability to be all alone 50 yards down the field. 

AIN'T THAT SPECIAL-  The Saints are currently a top 5 return team for both punts and kickoffs.  The Patriots should help them stay in those spots by not having them even think about returning the ball.  If Jake Bailey could remember that angling a punt to go out of bounds inside the 10 is good, but as a kickoff is bad, that would be great.     
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