If you are an NFL fan you’ve likely heard people talk about how tough or weak a team’s schedule is. One team supposedly isn’t as good as their record shows because their conference is weak and their non-conference opponents are bad. Another team is better than their record shows because they’ve had to play all the tough teams. While people frequently talk about who a team plays and where the game is played, the time of the game is rarely, if ever, mentioned. About the only complaint about game timing you’ll hear is general whining about Thursday night games.
Living on the east coast, I’ve certainly missed out on a lot of sleep forcing myself to stay awake until the end of a night game. With the fact that most teams have practice in the late morning, and the majority of games are at 1:00, I would naturally assume that suddenly playing football at midnight must be a bit difficult. Wondering that, I decided to look into the results of night games. More specifically, I researched the results of night games from 2006-current where the two teams playing were at least 2 times zones apart. Here are my results.
MONDAY NIGHT
Host has won 18 of 27 matchups while western team has won 19 of 27. When hosting the western team has won 14 of 19 games. Two of those out of the ordinary western home losses were close games played by a bad San Diego Chargers team. Another was 3 point San Francisco loss to an 11-5 Saints team. Twelve of these Monday night games were won by 14 or more points with ten of those lopsided victories going in the west’s direction.
MONDAY NIGHT
Host has won 18 of 27 matchups while western team has won 19 of 27. When hosting the western team has won 14 of 19 games. Two of those out of the ordinary western home losses were close games played by a bad San Diego Chargers team. Another was 3 point San Francisco loss to an 11-5 Saints team. Twelve of these Monday night games were won by 14 or more points with ten of those lopsided victories going in the west’s direction.
SUNDAY NIGHT
The home team has won 23 of 35 contests while the western team has won 21 of 35. When hosting, the western team has won 15/21. Eight of the 11 blowout (14 or more point differential) wins were celebrated by the western team The only 3 times the eastern team won in a blowout they were heavy favorites (2007 16-0 Patriots at home against the Chargers, 13-3 Bears at home against 9-7 Seahawks and 14-2 Colts at 10-6 Cardinals).
While the three eastern blowouts were won by heavy favorites, the western blowouts came from a variety of situations. In separate 8-8 seasons, the San Diego Chargers had blowouts against tough opponents (2008 30-10 against 11-5 New England) (2010 36-14 over Indianapolis).
The home team has won 23 of 35 contests while the western team has won 21 of 35. When hosting, the western team has won 15/21. Eight of the 11 blowout (14 or more point differential) wins were celebrated by the western team The only 3 times the eastern team won in a blowout they were heavy favorites (2007 16-0 Patriots at home against the Chargers, 13-3 Bears at home against 9-7 Seahawks and 14-2 Colts at 10-6 Cardinals).
While the three eastern blowouts were won by heavy favorites, the western blowouts came from a variety of situations. In separate 8-8 seasons, the San Diego Chargers had blowouts against tough opponents (2008 30-10 against 11-5 New England) (2010 36-14 over Indianapolis).
THURSDAY NIGHT
Ahhhh, the night game which no player, team or fan seems to be thrilled with. While it’s been pointed out in the past that the home team has an even greater home field advantage on Thursday Night games than any other game of the week, it gets even more extreme when you throw in the time zone factor.
Looking at the Thursday Night games, I found that overall the home team won 8 of 10 games while the western team has also won 8-10. If you want to pick a winner for a Thursday Night game, then I’d go with picking a western host. Why is that? When hosting and having at least a two time zone advantage, the western team is a perfect 6-0
Five of the ten games were won by 14 or more points. Four of those victories were by the home team and four of those were by the western team.
Ahhhh, the night game which no player, team or fan seems to be thrilled with. While it’s been pointed out in the past that the home team has an even greater home field advantage on Thursday Night games than any other game of the week, it gets even more extreme when you throw in the time zone factor.
Looking at the Thursday Night games, I found that overall the home team won 8 of 10 games while the western team has also won 8-10. If you want to pick a winner for a Thursday Night game, then I’d go with picking a western host. Why is that? When hosting and having at least a two time zone advantage, the western team is a perfect 6-0
Five of the ten games were won by 14 or more points. Four of those victories were by the home team and four of those were by the western team.
REVIEW:
In order to put the above numbers in perspective, I’ll give you a statistic from sportingcharts.com. In 2015 they wrote that if you were to look at the overall impact of home field advantage in the NFL, you would see that the home team has won 58.04% of the time. If you look at the west home team advantage for these time zone affected games, you can see it’s definitely better than that.
The game with the greatest advantage seems to be the dreaded Thursday Night game. Somehow, Denver, a mountain team with no league opponents who are two times zones away, has managed to play 3 Thursday night games and host 2 of them. For those who are curious, the Broncos are a perfect 3-0 in those games
In order to put the above numbers in perspective, I’ll give you a statistic from sportingcharts.com. In 2015 they wrote that if you were to look at the overall impact of home field advantage in the NFL, you would see that the home team has won 58.04% of the time. If you look at the west home team advantage for these time zone affected games, you can see it’s definitely better than that.
The game with the greatest advantage seems to be the dreaded Thursday Night game. Somehow, Denver, a mountain team with no league opponents who are two times zones away, has managed to play 3 Thursday night games and host 2 of them. For those who are curious, the Broncos are a perfect 3-0 in those games
Of the teams who are on Pacific Time, Oakland has been gifted with the least amount of advantageous night games with a whole two. With a conference rival being in a central time zone, you’d assume the Raiders would end up with more of these games on their schedule than say the Cardinals or Broncos who play all of their conference games against teams within one time zone, but clearly that’s not the case.
EXTRA: While researching this time zone effect, I had to pull out all of the Thursday Night Football games which were really Saturday Night Football games. In doing so I realized that of the 16 regular season Saturday Night Football games since 2006, the guest has won 87.5 of the time. That nugget of intel may serve useful in the upcoming weeks. It could also make for a fruitful Christmas Eve if it’s actually just a Saturday thing and not a Saturday Night thing with twelve games on the 24th.
If you like what you've read here, share with your friends and follow @BOSsportschick on twitter
EXTRA: While researching this time zone effect, I had to pull out all of the Thursday Night Football games which were really Saturday Night Football games. In doing so I realized that of the 16 regular season Saturday Night Football games since 2006, the guest has won 87.5 of the time. That nugget of intel may serve useful in the upcoming weeks. It could also make for a fruitful Christmas Eve if it’s actually just a Saturday thing and not a Saturday Night thing with twelve games on the 24th.
If you like what you've read here, share with your friends and follow @BOSsportschick on twitter
RSS Feed
