If Tom Brady wants to a chance to win his 4th Superbowl he needs to take it on the run. Now, I am not suggesting that Brady should try to use his legs to march the Patriots to a victory. Although if he gets an open lane for a first down I do hope he takes
it. What I am saying is that running the ball is the Patriots' best bet for having a date at the Meadowlands in February.
While some people may be wanting them to run solely because of how well it's worked the last few games, I'm not basing my opinion on that. There are a lot of statistics that back up why I'm calling for the run.
For starters we consistently get positive yardage when we take to the ground. On the season we have only been stuffed 7% of the time. In addition to getting positive yardage regularly, we also get stronger the more we run. As a team we average 4.3 yards per carry on our first ten carries of a game and 4.2 on carries 11-20. While that is awesome, it is peanuts compared to what happens on carries 21 and over. As a team, the Patriots average 8.5 yards per carry on rushes 21+.
While we probably can't run the ball on every play and expect those same averages, running the ball should put us in pretty good position to gain first downs by avoiding the dreaded 3rd and long. Yeah, we aren't so good at 3rd and long. The Patriots' success rate on 3rd down is less than 26% when we need more than 7 yards. When we need 7 or less yards our efficiency gets much better. We have a success rate of 46.9% on third and medium (3-7) and 61.1% on third and short.
There are several other benefits to letting the running game guide our play calling. It puts Brady in a better position to be successful as he'll be lined up under center more. On the season his quarterback rating was ten points lower when he was in shotgun formation. Lining up under center in a hostile environment should also improve communication with Ryan Wendell and minimize confusion and penalties to our offensive line.
While some people may be wanting them to run solely because of how well it's worked the last few games, I'm not basing my opinion on that. There are a lot of statistics that back up why I'm calling for the run.
For starters we consistently get positive yardage when we take to the ground. On the season we have only been stuffed 7% of the time. In addition to getting positive yardage regularly, we also get stronger the more we run. As a team we average 4.3 yards per carry on our first ten carries of a game and 4.2 on carries 11-20. While that is awesome, it is peanuts compared to what happens on carries 21 and over. As a team, the Patriots average 8.5 yards per carry on rushes 21+.
While we probably can't run the ball on every play and expect those same averages, running the ball should put us in pretty good position to gain first downs by avoiding the dreaded 3rd and long. Yeah, we aren't so good at 3rd and long. The Patriots' success rate on 3rd down is less than 26% when we need more than 7 yards. When we need 7 or less yards our efficiency gets much better. We have a success rate of 46.9% on third and medium (3-7) and 61.1% on third and short.
There are several other benefits to letting the running game guide our play calling. It puts Brady in a better position to be successful as he'll be lined up under center more. On the season his quarterback rating was ten points lower when he was in shotgun formation. Lining up under center in a hostile environment should also improve communication with Ryan Wendell and minimize confusion and penalties to our offensive line.
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