Looking at both teams statistics through the 2021 NFL season, the Patriots and Chargers look to be pretty evenly matched in most categories. There are however a few places where one team does appear to have an advantage heading into this week 8 matchup.
STOPPING THE RUN- The Patriots are currently 11th with having given up 105.6 rushing yards per game. The Chargers are the league worst with allowing teams to gain an average of 162.5 yards on the ground. While this could be an indication of Damien Harris having a huge game, you never really can predict what Josh McDaniels has in mind. He could have Mac come out throwing or suddenly start spreading the touches around the backs. The Chargers leading rusher is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has been nursing a hip injury this week, but is likely to still make a start today.
TURNOVERS- Win the turnover battle, win the game. Of course holding onto the ball when guys are trying to rip it out of your hands isn't as easy as it sounds. In 7 games the Patriots have turned over the ball 11 times. While they recovered from some of those miscues, some of them sealed their fate. Having only played 6 games, the Chargers have 6 turnovers to go with their 9 takeaways. Both quarterbacks have not thrown an interception when ahead. Mac has thrown all 6 of his interceptions while trailing. Herbert has thrown 3 picks when trailing and 1 when tied. In his 21 NFL games, Herbert has thrown a touchdown pass in all but one game. That one game was last season against the Patriots. In all Herbert has had 3 games where he has thrown 2 interceptions. He is 0-3 in those games. Yes, the Patriots did pick him off 2 times last year.
TURNOVERS- Win the turnover battle, win the game. Of course holding onto the ball when guys are trying to rip it out of your hands isn't as easy as it sounds. In 7 games the Patriots have turned over the ball 11 times. While they recovered from some of those miscues, some of them sealed their fate. Having only played 6 games, the Chargers have 6 turnovers to go with their 9 takeaways. Both quarterbacks have not thrown an interception when ahead. Mac has thrown all 6 of his interceptions while trailing. Herbert has thrown 3 picks when trailing and 1 when tied. In his 21 NFL games, Herbert has thrown a touchdown pass in all but one game. That one game was last season against the Patriots. In all Herbert has had 3 games where he has thrown 2 interceptions. He is 0-3 in those games. Yes, the Patriots did pick him off 2 times last year.
SCORING BY QUARTER- Both teams score the majority of their points in the 4th quarter and struggle in the 3rd. Defensively, they are both strongest in the 2nd and 4th quarters, and still struggle in the 3rd. When I say struggle in the 3rd quarter, the Patriots are ranked 22nd for both points scored (3.14) and points given up (5.9). The Chargers on the other hand are still in the locker room when the second half starts. They are 32nd with points scored (1.8) and 31st with points given up (8.7). The results of today's game could really hinder on who comes out of the locker room with the better adjustments. I'm going to give the Patriots the advantage on that. I'll even go a step further and predict that Mac throws for his first 3rd quarter touchdown today.
PENALTIES- Although this has been an unacceptable amount of penalties for a Belichick coached team, 42 penalties over 7 games is better than the 43 over 6 games by the Chargers. Ideally, any penalties called or not called don't determine the outcome.
GET OFF THE FIELD- The Patriots defense has had some trouble getting off the field recently. Typically it looks like the following scenario, about to cause their opponents to go 3 and out, the team gives up a big first down. Their opponent then continues to move the ball down the field and into the endzone, all while wearing down the defense and keeping the offense on the sideline. The Chargers are only slightly better than the Patriots at moving the chains on 3rd down. Unfortunately, they are really good at moving the chains on 4th down. This season they have gone for it 12 times and been successful 8 times. On those 12 attempts, Herbert has kept it himself 2 times and aired it out 8. Of Herberts 5 4th down completions, Keenan Allen has had 3 of them and Jared Cook has had 2.
TRICK OR TREAT- The Patriots have executed some trick plays in recent weeks. Earlier in the season the Chargers really fooled the Raiders with their well executed fake field goal attempt. In addition to being ready for some tricks, the Patriots should add this one to the mix.
PENALTIES- Although this has been an unacceptable amount of penalties for a Belichick coached team, 42 penalties over 7 games is better than the 43 over 6 games by the Chargers. Ideally, any penalties called or not called don't determine the outcome.
GET OFF THE FIELD- The Patriots defense has had some trouble getting off the field recently. Typically it looks like the following scenario, about to cause their opponents to go 3 and out, the team gives up a big first down. Their opponent then continues to move the ball down the field and into the endzone, all while wearing down the defense and keeping the offense on the sideline. The Chargers are only slightly better than the Patriots at moving the chains on 3rd down. Unfortunately, they are really good at moving the chains on 4th down. This season they have gone for it 12 times and been successful 8 times. On those 12 attempts, Herbert has kept it himself 2 times and aired it out 8. Of Herberts 5 4th down completions, Keenan Allen has had 3 of them and Jared Cook has had 2.
TRICK OR TREAT- The Patriots have executed some trick plays in recent weeks. Earlier in the season the Chargers really fooled the Raiders with their well executed fake field goal attempt. In addition to being ready for some tricks, the Patriots should add this one to the mix.
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