WHY DON'T THE PATRIOTS TURN OVER THE BALL?

Stevan Ridley is in street clothes during a 2013 game after have 3 fumbles in 3 consecutive games.

The other day my St. Louis-loving friend Zuke threw at me an article about how the Patriots don't fumble the ball and how it's all because of the air press and blah blah blah.  I told her that I would respond using my blog instead of trying to type a response into Facebook using my phone.  Here is my response.

Yes, the Patriots have been amazing with their ability to hold onto the ball this season.  I think I was the first person to actually track the fact that Tom Brady was the only Patriot to have a turnover on the team until Brandon LaFell coughed one up in San Diego.  So why is this? 

There are many reasons why football players fumble the ball.  There are also many reasons why they don't fumble the ball.  This response is based on having watched all of the Patriots games multiple times and not just looking at some statistic which shows that the Patriots have significantly dropped their rate of fumbles per touch over the past 7 seasons.

A LOOK AT THE PLAYERS

BRANDON LAFELL- Since Brandon LaFell is guilty of committing the crime of fumbling the ball while wearing a New England Patriot uniform I will start with his career fumbling statistics and take a look at the fumbling rate of current Patriots.

In his 5 seasons in the NFL, LaFell has handled the ball 249 times.  He has 3 career fumbles with the only lost fumble coming this year in a Patriots' uniform. 

Screen shot from ESPN showing regular season statistics for Brandon LaFell.

DANNY AMENDOLA- Danny Amendola is another player who hasn't played all of his professional career for the Patriots.  He is also another player who does a pretty good job of holding onto the ball.  While a quick look at his stats will show a decrease in his turnovers since becoming a Patriots, we do need to delve a little further into his career to fully grasp his ball security.  For those who want to jump all over his two turnovers in the 2012 season, I would like to inform you that he was coming off a season where he was injured.  While injuries don't always affect ball security, I would say that a season ending dislocated elbow/torn triceps would absolutely have lingering effects in the next season.  Moreover, although he hasn't officially had a fumble in a Patriots uniform, I recall him having several touches where he lost the ball yet was ruled down by contact.  

Screen shot from ESPN showing regular season statistics for Danny Amendola.

JULIAN EDELMAN-Julian Edelman is another player who has consistently avoided the dreaded turnover.  Of course if you look at his career statistics you'll see that since he has become a bigger part of the Patriots' offense he has had more fumbles.  Luckily for him, most of those fumbles have been recovered by either him or his teammates.  As a matter of fact, Edelman has lost a handle on the ball in both of the Patriots games this postseason.  Before you waste your time looking at the AFC Championship game, he had it during the first quarter and it luckily went out of bounds.

Julian Edelman regular season statistics.

Julian Edelman post season statistics.

ROB GRONKOWSKI- Rob Gronkowski has not been as fortuitous as Edelman when he has fumbled the ball as 100% of them have been recovered by the opposition.  Luckily for the Patriots he has only fumbled the ball twice in his career.  Before you go and claim that it's because the ball is under-inflated, please consider that his hands are huge.  According to his NFL Combine measurements, his hands are 10 3/4".  If you are still not convinced, turn that 8 1/2 " x 11" sheet of paper on its side and see if the distance between your pinky and thumb is the width of the paper.

Rob Gronkowski's regular and post-season statistics.

TIM WRIGHT- When 23% of your receptions are touchdowns, you really don't have to worry about fumbling the ball.  Nonetheless, Tim Wright didn't have any fumbles in his rookie season last year in Tampa Bay.  

Tim Wright's career statistics.

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT - LeGarrette Blount actually turns the ball over a lot more than I thought.  While he hasn't officially turned it over for the Patriots this season, he did put it on the ground three times last season.  Overall, Blount has been very protective of the football this season and only tries to stretch it out to break the plane.  Luckily, he has managed to be down before losing the ball in the red zone.   

JONAS GRAY - The rookie has done a nice job in the games of not turning over the ball.  Of course most of his carries and yards came in one game in a nice dome.  Even still, he doesn't have the trust of Bill Belichick. Whether that is because he was late to practice or has trouble holding onto the ball or running plays in practice is anyone's guess.

Jonas Gray's statistics.

SHANE VEREEN-During the games that count Vereen has had only two fumbles with one resulting in a turnover.  To say that Shane understands the importance of protecting the football would be an understatement as he has seen first hand what happens when you fumble the ball while playing for a Bill Belichick team.  During a 2013 40-9 pre-season walloping by the Detroit Lion, Vereen was relegated to the bench with fellow running back Brandon Bolden after both gifted the Lions with the pigskin.  A few weeks later Vereen saw a lot more touches than expected against the Buffalo Bills when fellow running back Stevan Ridley was sat down after losing the handle on the ball for the second time in a game.       

Shane Vereen regular season statistics.

STEVAN RIDLEY- Although he hasn't played a snap since October, it is very important that when we talk about fumbles we talk about Ridley.  If anyone on earth knows how important it is to hold onto the football it is Stevan Ridley.  Last season Ridley did more than miss out on playing time against the Bills.  After losing three fumbles in three consecutive games, Ridley was a healthy scratch when the Patriots went to Houston.  During that game Ridley was seen patrolling the sideline in street clothes with a football in hand. 

Stevan Ridley regular season statistics.

Stevan Ridley post season statistics.

Reading through what I've written so far, I think it is obvious that fumbling the football is not tolerated by Bill Belichick.  As a matter of fact when asked about the importance of ball security today he said, "Not a day goes by when I don't talk about it".  While it's quite obvious that a team who focuses on ball security must practice it in practice, the Patriots take that to another level.  According to an article in today's Boston Globe, Alex Speier credits the Patriots with actually greasing up the ball for drills during practice. 

If you watch much football you know that there are many reasons why a player fumbles the ball.  One reason is that the player in possession of the ball is careless with it.  This is the type of turnover that the Patriots seem to avoid much better than most teams.  Another reason they avoid turnovers was pointed out on a radio station the other day (I can't remember who said it).  One of the cohosts pointed out the fact that the play calling of the Patriots is another less obvious reason for them having less turnovers than their opponents.  In my opinion these are the three main reasons the Patriots have recently had less turnovers than their opponents.

While it is pretty hard to find data on it, those who watch the Patriots games know that they do in fact lose a handle on the ball several times a game.  Whether it is luck or skill, they have managed to be down by contact a good portion of the times.  Since these plays are usually confirmed by challenges and don't result in fumbles, they aren't collected on any statistic sheets that I'm familiar with.

The other types of fumbles aren't really that avoidable and come down to either bad luck or a great play by an opponent.  The fumbles I consider bad luck are the ones where a player is going to the ground and loses the ball trying to brake their fall.  Off the top of my head I can't really remember any of these happening to the Patriots this season.  I consider the great play turnovers as the types when an opposing team just comes and takes the ball from you.  This can be when they just pull the ball out of your hands or when a helmet knocks the ball loose.  While holding onto the ball like your life depends on it may prevent the defense from taking it from you, sometimes a little bit of luck doesn't hurt.         

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