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WHAT TO WATCH FOR WEEK 1: PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS

9/11/2022

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Having intentionally not shown a whole lot during the pre-season and having a lot of new faces around Gillette, trying to predict or look for certain things in today's game is significantly different than in years past.  Regardless, I'll give it my best shot while also trying to be a bit original as usual.
SPECIAL TEAMS- Last year the Patriots special teams unit had some solid plays and some hiccups.  I think this year we will be back to playing consistent.  I'll even venture out to say that we might get back to being the undisputed best team in that phase of the game.  Now that all of the other NFL teams also pay special attention to that third phase, getting back to the absolute best isn't going to be an easy task, but I still think it's in the air.  

While I do think today's outcome will hinder on a big play in the return game, I would be remiss to not mention Nick Folk.  According to the Patriots Game Release, Folk has made 55 regular season field goal attempts under 50 yards.  Should he make his next one, he'll be tied with Ryan Succop for the longest streak (under 50 yards).  When was the last time he missed one in that range?  Well, that would have been in 2020 in the season opener against Miami (in NE).  The Patriots did win that game 21-11.  Yes, that was the last time that the Patriots beat the Dolphins.

Back to my big play in the return game prediction for today.  While someone may take one to paydirt, the big play I'm feeling might be a muff or irrelevant whistle that is a game changer. 
COACHING- While the Patriots still have a head coach named Bill Belichick, they don't officially have either an offensive or defensive coordinator.  What they do have is a whole lot of guys who are part of the Belichick tree of coaching.  Opposing them today is Mike McDaniel who hails from the Shanahan coaching tree.  Even without having named coordinators, I think the coaching favors New England today.  Personally I thought Josh McDaniels became too predictable in his game planning and left a lot of points on the board in the first half of games.  Those points usually ended up in being the difference in a tight game.  
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QUARTERBACKS-  The last time the two Alabama alumni faced each other, rookie Mac Jones threw a pick six to give the Dolphins an early 14-0 lead that they never relinquished.  I'm sure he's thought about that mistake a time or two since January.  Today both quarterbacks will have some new toys to play with.  Instead of trying to defend DeVante Parker, the Patriots will be looking to get him the ball.  Defensively, they will be tasked with stopping Tyreek Hill. 

Does this year's Patriots defense have the speed to stop Tyreek today?  I think they do.  Of course, making sure they get off the field early in possessions and don't get stuck with winded cornerbacks going against a hurry up offense are keys to getting burnt by the cheetah.

Have you ever seen a quarterback be truly successful with a crappy offensive line?  Both quarterbacks have shown that they can play in the NFL.  Who looks better today will come down to the play of their offensive line.  While the Patriots offensive line got a lot of grief in the pre-season, barring injuries I think they will be one of the best in the league.  Although fans were a bit disappointed in the team selecting Cole Strange in round one, I think his solid play will be a huge factor in Mac staying upright and having time to make the right decisions.  
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