WHAT TO EXPECT: PATRIOTS VS. RAIDERS

Oakland Raiders WR James Jones has fumbled 3 times this season, the Patriots should be ready to pounce on the ball today.

After starting the season with two road games, the Patriots will be having a bit of a homecoming today.  Like most high school and college homecoming games, the host team appears to be the heavy favorite.  Of course the game does need to played and it would be foolish to pencil in a Patriots' victory before the game goes final. 

Offensively, the Patriots should improve in all facets of the game this week as they face the 22nd ranked defense of the Oakland Raiders.  Although they are ranked  near the bottom defensively, the Raiders do have the 2nd ranked passing defense.  While Oakland could actually have a decent passing defense, this unlikely ranking is likely because they have played against Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Since the Patriots are currently only averaging 199 yards in the air per games, they should have a relatively easy time improving on their passing game. 

When it comes to the running game, I expect the Patriots to have their best game of the season.  The Raiders are currently giving up 200 yards rushing a game.  Assuming Josh McDaniels gets Ridley, Vereen, and Edelman the ball in the backfield at least 35 times, the Patriots should have an easy time eclipsing 200 yards.  I'm predicting that all three players have 100 yard games. Ridley's will come from the running game.  Vereen's will be a combination of rushing and receiving.  When it comes to Edelman, I wouldn't be shocked if he had close to 200 yards total today.  A little fun fact for you on this Sunday is that the Patriots currently have the best stuffed percentage in the NFL.   In other words their offense has been stuffed at the line on the scrimmage the smallest percent of the time.     

As mentioned previously, the Raiders do have the second ranked passing defense.  While this is likely a case of who their opponents have been, I'd still like to see the Patriots establish a running game before forcing the passing game to develop. 

Defensively, the Patriots will need to keep rookie quarterback Derek Carr contained.  Carr has only been sacked 2 times this season and is the leading rusher for Oakland with 57 yards on 5 attempts.  Hopefully, Chandler Jones can take him down without drawing any flags this week and maybe get the defensive player of the week award again.

Two games into his rookie season Carr has 414 passing yards which is pretty much half in the air and half after the catch.  Last weekend the Patriots did a great job preventing yards after the catch by being sure of their tackles and focusing on bringing the receiver down as opposed to trying to make a big hit. 

James Jones appears to be Carr's favorite target this season.  Jones has 12 receptions on 17 targets and is averaging over 12 yards per reception.  When the ball is in his hands all defensive players should get near him even if it's obvious than a tackle is being made.  Why do I say that you ask?  Well, Jones already has 3 fumbles (1 turnover) on the season, so there is a good chance that he will cough up the ball.

My prediction for today:

Patriots                           Raiders

45                 points             10
245             rushing            75
308             passing           188
5                   sacks               0
0                 turnovers           4


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