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WEEK 8 ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS VS. BROWNS

10/27/2019

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Before the 2019 NFL season began the talking heads over at ESPN had the Browns ranked as the #10 team.  After 6 games they've accumulated 2 wins and an average of 20 points per game.  Have they faced a lot of defensive powerhouses?  No.  Have they suffered significant injuries on the offensive side of the ball?  No.  Are they going to get a beat down in Foxboro?  Yes.  
PATRIOTS OFFENSE- Today will be the day that the Patriots get their run-game going.  Instead of just running to keep the defense honest, they will be running to move the chains.  When the game is over and all statistics are totalled, Sony Michel will be the top dawg.  Giving up over 150 ground yards per game, expect the Browns to let both Michel and Blount hit the century mark.

The one thing the Browns' defense does well is get to the quarterback.  With expected sloppy conditions, I doubt there will be a significant amount of deep throws from Brady.  With short routes likely on the menu, expect Brady to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid the pressure.  As usual Brady will spread the ball around and be knocking on the door of 300 yards without having one guy with 100 yards themself.  
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​DEFENSE-The defense has three people to focus on today.  We will assume that Gilmore is in charge of making sure OBJ gets nothing.  That brings us down to two players Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb.  While Chubb typically gets his fair share of yards after contact, the only big plays he gets today will be the result of offensive holding.  Hopefully, the officials have a good game today and any big runs aided by holds get properly brought back.  Expect Jamie Collins to show his athleticism today as he'll keep Chubb from moving the chains and will bypass Jason McCourty as leading tackler on the team.  Jarvis Landry may have more than his average of 4 catches today, of course with the Patriots' defense swarming him and not allowing him to get any yards after the catch he'll wish he didn't get off the bus.  Not wanting to add to the Patriots' interception total, Mayfield is going to hold onto the ball longer than he should early on giving the Patriots a handful of sacks in the first half.
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SPECIAL TEAMS- Special teams is the one place that I am a little worried.  Both teams have rookie punters who have had solid seasons so far.  While Bailey has yet to be blocked, a slippery pigskin could lead to a dangerous situation.  Punting for Cleveland is a former rugby player sporting a mullet, Jamie Gillan.  Should he have to handle a bad snap, Gillan will probably try to make something happen.  Of course trying to make something happen and actually being successful are two completely different things.  On the receiving side of things Gunner has been making some solid decisions, hopefully that continues.

The Browns also have a rookie completing kicking duties for them.  Austin Seibert has yet to miss a field goal opportunity in the NFL and has made 10 of 12 PATs.  Seibert is 8 for 8 with a 48 yard field goal.  Should the Browns get within field goal range before the game gets out of hand, I fully expect them to give Seibert a chance to avoid a shutout.  In his 3 games with the Patriots Nugent is 12 for 13 in PATs and 3 for 4 with field goal attempts.  
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