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WEEK 6 ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS VS. GIANTS

10/10/2019

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Although the consensus around New England is that we don't like Thursday night games, when they happen heading into a long weekend, they are much more palatable. With this short week and sloppy conditions, what are we in for?
The Giants are a middle of the pack offense.  The Patriots are a phenomenal defense.  Will that trend continue tonight?  I think it will.  Every time I check, it seems the Giants are down another key offensive player.  Saquon Barkley is still out with his ankle injury while his backup Wayne Gallman is out with a concussion.  Other key offensive players who won't be suiting up tonight are wide receiver, Sterling Shepard (concussion) and tight end Evan Engram (knee).  

When it comes to stopping the Giants running game, the Patriots should have a pretty easy task.  That being said, they won't improve their defensive stats unless they keep the team under 78 yards.  Expected to be the main back tonight is third year player Elijhaa Penny.  In his 46 career rushing attempts, Penny has gone up the middle 21 times.  When it comes to being part of the passing game, Penny has 13 career receptions with 10 of them coming on the right side of the field.
The passing game for New York doesn't look like it will fair much better than the running game.  Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been on a downward trend from his first start in week 3.  While he has minimal stats to analyze, he does seem to struggle  as the game progresses.  He also can't seem to connect with his receivers when he passes to the right.  Two of his three interceptions have occured when he passed to the right while all of his touchdowns have gone left. 

The two receivers who the Patriots will need to keep an eye on are rookie Darius Slayton and 10 year veteran Golden Tate.  Yeah, that shouldn't be a problem.

Pretty much the only way I see this game being close is if both the Patriots' offense and special teams have several miscues that the Giants capitalize on.  Should the Giants try to rush only 3 players, I expect the offense to make adjustments much quicker than last week.  Other than that, I actually think we may see a relatively strong showing by the Patriots offense.
 
While my memory was telling me that Brady hasn't played well on Thursdays, his stats say otherwise.  In his 20 career games that weren't played on a Sunday or Monday, Brady has run for 4 touchdowns and has his best quarterback rating.  Specifically on Thursday nights, Brady is 10-1 for his career.
When it comes to the offense, I'm expecting to see Brady continue to spread the ball around to keep the defense honest.  Honest or not, the Giants' defense is one of the worst in the NFL so far this season.  Over 5 games they are giving up over 400 yards while the Patriots have given up a mere 239 yards.   

Unless someone breaks loose for a 40 yard gain, I don't expect to see anyone hit the century mark on the ground.  However, I do expect to see Sony combine for 100 as he'll see a few passes come his way.  I think we might see Gunner Olszewski get his first offensive touch of his career today.
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