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WEEK 4: PATRIOTS AT CHIEFS

10/5/2020

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Not really the pregame post I planned on writing Saturday morning.  With a few hours to game time, here are my thoughts and things to consider.
TRUTH IS STRANGER THAN FICTION- Really, what are the chances that Chiefs' player who also tested positive for the virus would be the scout team quarterback who was filling the roll of Cam Newton all week?  

RUNNING GAME BETTER BRING IT-  Weeks one and three the Patriots led the NFL in rushing.  We need that this week.  We need to be running to move the chains and not running to keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline.  Luckily we are pretty deep with the backs this year as Sony Michel will not be suiting up for the Pats.  Last week was the 53rd time since 2000 (regular season only) that the Patriots had a player run for 100 yards or more.  Their record during that time?  52 and 1!.  The lonely loss came back in 2004.  
WIN TURNOVER BATTLE- While it is always a big deal to not turnover the ball, every ball that can be picked or recovered by the Patriots is a must have.  Again looking at the past 20 years, when the Patriots win the turnover battle they are 162-18.  In order to win tonight, I think the Patriots need to win the turnover battle by 2.  

DEFENSE- Against the Seahawks we looked slow.  I chalked it up to no preseason and a late night game on the opposite coast.  Tonight is the night for Gilmore to shine and McCourty to stay upright.  Hopefully, the field conditions at Arrowhead are good.  With game time temperatures at about 70 and no recent rain, the playing conditions should be pretty good.  Of course with their speed at receiver a wet field might have helped the Patriots.

BIG THREE-  Watkins, Kelce, and Hill.  If you are what we refer to as a jinx, putting them on your fantasy football team this evening would be greatly appreciated.

3RD DOWN-  Bad news folks, the Chiefs have been almost unstoppable on third down this season.  Their conversion rate is currently just above 58%.  Luckily, they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defense on third down.  

PENALTIES- Maybe we can get a repeat of the AFC Championship where the Chiefs get called on a huge pre-snap penalty.  This season they have been called for 9 of them already.  In total the Patriots have only had a total of 7 accepted penalties against them.

SPECIAL TEAMS- If Folk is ever going to have a clean game this year, tonight would be a good night for that.  Of course unless it is to close out the half or win the game with just a few tics left on the clock, I really don't want to see him attempt any field goals.  Chiefs' opponents have not had good field possession as they've only had one possession start inside their own 50.  Giving teams a long field is usually helpful to the defense.  If the Patriots can muster a short field or two, that could be key to victory.        
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