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WEEK 4 ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS VS. BILLS

9/29/2019

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Two weeks after trotting out on the field with almost too many offensive weapons, the Patriots will play their second road game of the season with a lot less fire power.
OFFENSE-  Which offensive players will be suited up, let alone at 100% is anyone's guess.  Hopefully any babies who are on the way can hold off on making their appearances for a day or two.  As I think about today's game, I'm assuming that Edelman is suited up and ready to go.  While he may not be at 100%, having him on the field gives Brady a lot more options.  Having a fresh James White available is also going to open up that playbook substantially.  While he might bust into the endzone a time or two today, I don't anticipate Sony Michel putting up a lot of yards.  While he hasn't been on the injury report, I do think he is a bit banged up after having to run into brick walls for three games straight in order to keep defenses honest.  
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BRADY- You've already heard that Brady is 30-3 lifetime against the Bills and has more wins as a quarterback in Buffalo than any other player since 2001.  While that's all great, his solid start to the season with weekly completions on at least 2 of every 3 passes to go along with zero interceptions and fumbles is why I'm expecting some solid numbers today.    
SPECIAL TEAMS-  There are so many aspects to special teams.  One second we are absolutely the best and the next play we are worried about guys losing their jobs.  Hopefully today's game does not get decided by a mistake on special teams and any play that gets shown over and over is a highlight worthy one.  Gostkowski doesn't seem to have any struggles in Buffalo.  While he has never missed a PAT against the Bills, I hope I don't hear the announcers say that fun fact during today's broadcast.  When it comes to field goals he is 49/58.  Like most, I would like to see the other "ski", Gunner Olszewski, fielding punts and not Edelman.  Gunner is currently listed as questionable with a hamstring.        
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DEFENSE- ​Wow, they are playing some top notch defense.  There are so many unbelievable stats they are putting up.  Don't even try to give me the "they haven't played anyone BS".  Besides not giving up scores and pretty much keeping opponents on their own side of the field, they've only allowed a combined 110 rushing yards over a course of 3 games. According to Football Outsiders, here are some other amazing numbers for the Patriots' defense based on 37 drives:
  • 15.41 yards per drive
  • .08 points per drive
  • .162 interceptions per drive
  • 4.59 plays per drive
  • 2:03 time of possession per drive
  • .595 punts per drive
  • .351 3 and outs per drive
Since they are also 3-0, I'd have to assume that Buffalo may really be the toughest opponent the Patriots have had to face so far.  Strategywise I'd say keeping John Brown and Cole Beasley in check will be key.  
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