In the preseason the Buffalo Bills were ranked 25th by ESPN and 23rd by the NFL. Here we are week 16 and the Bills are coming into Gillette for a pretty meaningful game. Already in the playoffs, can the Bills head into the final week of the regular season tied with the 2nd best record in the AFC and a chance to win the East and potentially grab a bye?
While all things are possible, I don't see the Patriots losing out. I also don't see them losing today.
FAST START- The Patriots need to have a fast start in today's game. The longer the Bills are hanging around, the better their chances. If you look at Josh Allen's numbers by the quarter, you'll see he's playing his best football in the 4th quarter with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. If you are thinking those statistics are in games that are already over, you'd be mistaken. In the 4th quarter when the score is within 7 points, he has his best quarterback ranking (118.2) and has 5 touchdowns. Early in games is when Josh is likely to have some hiccups. His first quarter stats include only 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Should the Patriots punch it into the endzone early and pad the lead, they should be able to have a hats and t-shirts locker room celebration.
FAST START- The Patriots need to have a fast start in today's game. The longer the Bills are hanging around, the better their chances. If you look at Josh Allen's numbers by the quarter, you'll see he's playing his best football in the 4th quarter with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. If you are thinking those statistics are in games that are already over, you'd be mistaken. In the 4th quarter when the score is within 7 points, he has his best quarterback ranking (118.2) and has 5 touchdowns. Early in games is when Josh is likely to have some hiccups. His first quarter stats include only 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Should the Patriots punch it into the endzone early and pad the lead, they should be able to have a hats and t-shirts locker room celebration.
THIRD DOWN- Overall, both defenses are in the top ten for 3rd down conversions. On the road the Bills are allowing opponents to convert on 36% of their chances. At home the Patriots are allowing opponents success only 20% of the time. During their September contest the Patriots converted on 5 of 18 while the Bills converted on 2 of 13.
CONTAIN JOSH ALLEN- While you aren't likely to see highlights of Allen running the ball, he is averaging 4.58 yards per carry and has 9 touchdowns via the ground. Looking over the situations he runs in, there is no obvious pattern. He's just as likely to run on 1st and 10 as 3rd and short. The Patriots best bet is to make Allen try and beat them through the air.
SINGLE OUT SINGLETARY- Rookie running back Devin Singletary did not play against the Patriots in week 4. Now that he is healthy, he is a big part of the Bills' offense. In Buffalo's loss to the Ravens, Devin had 89 yards on the ground and was targeted 8 times in the passing game. Last week Devin had a little trouble holding onto the ball as he fumbled the ball twice.
JELLED OFFENSE- Brady and Edelman being nicked up definitely hurts the offense. The fact that the offensive line is finally healthy this week and Josh McDaniels is starting to get Harry and LaCosse more involved gives me hope that the offense can trend upwards just in the nick of time. After not having a player run for 100 yards in a game yet this season, I have a feeling that is going to change today. I actually have this weird feeling that we might see two Patriots hit the century mark today. The last time that happened was in 2012 against Buffalo- Brandon Bolden (137) and Stevan Ridley (106).
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