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WEEK 15 ESSENTIALS: PATRIOTS AT STEELERS

12/16/2018

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Let me start off by saying that the Patriots should win today. Of course they should have won easily last week and we all know how that ended. Here’s a look at some key things to know about today’s game.
RED ZONE- Watching the Patriots in the red zone this season has been frustrating. While they are having pretty much the same success rate as last year, it sure doesn’t feel like it. In their past 3 games they’ve only been successful 50% of the time. Keep in mind, this includes 3 touchdowns by Develin. Assuming they get into the red zone, they need to get the ball in the endzone and not settle for attempted field goals. Luckily the Steelers don’t have a very good red zone defense.

When it comes to offense, the Steelers have the best in the league as they have been successful 77.5% of the time overall and 89.47% of the time at home. Defensively the Patriots have struggled, especially recently. They are ranked 23rd with an opponent success rate of 63.5%. In their last 3 games that rate has been 80%.
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HEINZ FIELD- The Steelers are an even 3-3 at home this season. The Patriots have struggled on the road. Looking closer at the Patriots struggles, there has been a consistent drop off with the defense when they play on grass fields. Heinz field is grass. With today’s rain and the above freezing temperatures, the defense is probably going to struggle again. Add in the fact that Roethlisberger is known for playing pretty well in the mud and it could be a recipe for disaster. Of course also considering that the Steelers are -8 with turnovers, does mean that defense will likely have some opportunities to make plays.
GO WITH WHAT’S WORKING- I think we can all agree that we saw too much Rex Burkhead last week. If Brady can just go with what’s working until Pittsburgh takes it away, the offensive sputtering will turn into the high octane offense we’ve seen glimpses of. This season the Steelers haven’t had many individuals have big games against them. However, when they have they rarely win.
  • ​individual opponent with 100 yards rushing- 0-1
  • individual opponent with 100 yards receiving- 1-4-1
  • individual opponent with 300 yards passing- 1-3
​There are several receivers and backs who are very capable of having “easy” 100 yard games (Gronk, Edelman, Gordon, Michel, White), feed the one who is open.

SPECIAL TEAMS- The Patriots have been all over the place with special teams this year. What used to be our strength is now a gamble. The one place that hasn’t blown up in our face lately, yet gives me heart palpitations every weekis punt returns. Edelman looks awful fielding punts. He’s consistently not calling for fair catches when there’s no chance of anything good happening. One of these days it’s going to lead to an easy score for our opponents. Hopefully it doesn’t also lead to a loss.

It goes without saying that this season the Patriots should be playing for touchbacks at least 95% of the time whether we are receiving or kicking. Ryan Allen has been solid all season (knock on wood) and Gostkowski had a really tough game in Miami.
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