If you go to the Cowboys' homepage you will see that they are touting this game as the top offense against the top defense. While I am obviously well aware of how incredible the Patriots' defense has been this year, I really hadn't noticed how well the Cowboys' offense had been doing.
BEST OFFENSE VS. BEST DEFENSE?-When it comes to points scored per game the Ravens are tops in the NFL with 34.1 points per game. New England and Dallas are neck and neck at 3rd and 4th with 28.7 and 28.6 points per game respectively. Currently Dallas is tops in the league with total offense (total yards by their offense). Since yards don't determine wins, most fans don't consider total offense as a true indicator of an offense's prowess.
Whether you look at points given up per game (10.8) or total yards (249.9), the Patriots' defense is number one. While the team is still light years ahead of everyone else with a turnover margin of +1.8 per game, their takeaways per game has dipped a bit since September. Playing at home for the first time in almost a month should be just what the doctor ordered. Looking at Dak's record, there is a huge difference when he throws at least one interception. For the regular season Prescott is 30-6 when he doesn't throw a pick. With one interception his record drops to 6-6 and with more than one he's 2-8. Surely, the Patriots are good for at least one interception in the first half, let alone the typical close out by Harmon to seal the deal.
Whether you look at points given up per game (10.8) or total yards (249.9), the Patriots' defense is number one. While the team is still light years ahead of everyone else with a turnover margin of +1.8 per game, their takeaways per game has dipped a bit since September. Playing at home for the first time in almost a month should be just what the doctor ordered. Looking at Dak's record, there is a huge difference when he throws at least one interception. For the regular season Prescott is 30-6 when he doesn't throw a pick. With one interception his record drops to 6-6 and with more than one he's 2-8. Surely, the Patriots are good for at least one interception in the first half, let alone the typical close out by Harmon to seal the deal.
DAK STATS CONTINUED- Some other Dak stats which jumped out at me were his 12-11 record against teams with a winning record and his 18-14 record when sacked more than once. With last week's win the Patriots have their 19th winning season in a row, couple that with the fact that he Patriots are currently averaging 3.7 sacks per game and a Patriots victory is pretty certain.
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS-While I am predicting a Patriots win, sometimes it might not be so pretty. Getting the Cowboys off the field isn't an easy task. They are successful on 52.07% of their 3rd down conversion attempts. They are also tops in the the NFL with 3rd and long as they are 19 for 46. While they have given up some 3rd down conversions of late, the Patriots are still tops in the NFL with only allowing conversions 19.33% of the time.
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS-While I am predicting a Patriots win, sometimes it might not be so pretty. Getting the Cowboys off the field isn't an easy task. They are successful on 52.07% of their 3rd down conversion attempts. They are also tops in the the NFL with 3rd and long as they are 19 for 46. While they have given up some 3rd down conversions of late, the Patriots are still tops in the NFL with only allowing conversions 19.33% of the time.
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH- After hearing more of the Tom Brady cliff talk and him having a 67.3 rating last week, it's time for him to have a great game. With him having an extra second in the pocket today, I fully expect him to suddenly look rejuvenated with much more accurate passes. Sony Michel will also suddenly look like the solid running back we saw last year as he will now get to run behind his college teammate Wynn.
EARLY LEAD- Always a solid frontrunner, the Patriots should be able to build an early lead on the Cowboys. In their five away games, the Cowboys have scored a total of 9 points in the first quarter. The Patriots on the other hand are averaging 11 points in the first quarter of their home games. I'm hoping that having a banged-up and young receiving corps will have Josh McDaniels planning for some quick scores and not worrying about setting up second half plays.
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