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THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE PEAVY WILL GET RUN SUPPORT AND THE RED SOX WILL GET TO .500

5/7/2014

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Today will be the second of four interleague games between the Cincinnati Reds and the Red Sox this season.  The remaining games will occur in Ohio during August.  As both teams came into the series just below .500, last night's game brought the Red Sox one game closer while it sent the Reds one game further away.
Last Night-Last night it took the Red Sox 12 innings to move back within one game of .500.  Felix Doubront lowered his ERA from 5.7 to 5.09 by going 5.1 innings giving up only 1 run.  Doubront would lose out on a win when Junichi Tazawa gave up 2 runs in the eighth.  Four innings later Grady Sizemore got to celebrate his first game winning hit at Fenway Park when he tagged the green monster with a single sending David Ortiz home from second base. 
Tonight- Tonight's game will be a matchup of righties, Jake Peavy and Mike Leake.  A forner National League pitcher, Peavy is a perfect 6-0 against the Reds with a career ERA of 2.14.

Peavy currently has a 1-1 record and a 2.87 ERA.  He has struggled going deep into ball games due to walking so many guys.  Even so, he has been brilliant with leaving runners on base (91.6%).  In his six starts he has given up 30 hits, 21 walks and 6 home runs.  By spreading out the walks, hits and home runs (1 in every game), Peavy has managed to keep his ERA under three.  So far this season Peavy has been relying more on his changeup than in years past.

Peavy's two weaknesses have been Leake's strengths.  Leake has gone deep into all of his starts with his shortest outing lasting 6 2/3 innings.  In his most recent start Leake went 8 innings giving up only 2 runs in a loss against the Brewers.  For the season he has only given up 8 walks in 43 1/3 innings of work.  Leake is known for throwing a variety of pitches (fastball, cutter, slider, curve, change).yet not having one that truly stands out.  Like his teammate Homer Bailey, Leake generally throws the ball down and away. 

If Leake does happen to leave something up against the Red Sox, it is likely going to be a hit.  Why do I say this?  Well, this season 31% of the balls hit into play by righties have been fly balls.  Of all the fly balls hit into play against Leake, over 16% have been home runs.  Keeping in mind both those statistics and considering tonight's weather and the dimensions of Fenway Park has me thinking that Peavy might finally be the recipient of some run support.  Throw in the fact that we only scored 3 runs in 12 innings during last night's game and only 1 run during Peavy's last start and surely we are due for some runs tonight.   


Xander Bogaerts will have the night off and Johnathan Herrera will be in his place.
Red Sox Lineup

  1. Pedroia, 2B
  2. Victorino, RF
  3. Ortiz, DH
  4. Napoli, 1B
  5. Sizemore, LF
  6. Pierzynski, C
  7. Bradley Jr., CF
  8. Middlebrooks, 3B
  9. Herrera, SS
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