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SUPER BOWL ESSENTIALS- PATRIOTS VS. CHARGERS

2/3/2019

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So here we are, it’s Super Bowl Sunday. The Brady Belichick Patriots have a chance to go 6-3 in Super Bowls. The make that a reality, here’s what I think needs to happen.
WIN THE PUNTING GAME- All year I’ve been worried about Jules getting too cute with punt returns. Against the Chiefs that cuteness almost resulted in a turnover. Hopefully that close as can be call and Patrick Chung’s strong words have stuck and Edelman doesn’t have a brain fart on the 15 yard line. Since there’s a good chance that the Rams try for some trickery out of a punt formation, I’d actually be quite fine with the Patriots keeping the defense on the field and putting Chung deep.

When it comes to the Patriots running Ryan Allen out on the field, I’m pretty confident that he’ll be his usual consistent self with pinpointing his punts and the coverage team will pin the Rams deep. If you didn’t already know about the connection between both teams’ punters, you should check out this article from Pats Pulpit.
PROTECT BRADY- The back to back NFL Most Valuable Defensive Player is Aaron Donald. The leader in sacks this season is Aaron Donald. The defensive player that Scarnecchia and his o-line will silence is Aaron Donald. The only way I would feel differently about this is if we were to lose 2 players off the line today. Obviously if we had to suddenly go to a mix and match line the cohesiveness of the unit would be lost and the plays at Brady’s disposal would erode.

The Rams defensive player who actually worries me most is Ndamukong Suh. While he might be better behaved than he used to be, he’s still the guy who will kick a guy when he’s down. Although he didn’t get flagged for it, this season he got away with with punching and choking Patrick Mahomes when he was trying to slide. The fact that Suh’s dirty antics typically involve cheap shots to quarterbacks does concern me.
CAPITALIZE ON OPPORTUNITIES- The Patriots let a lot of opportunities slip through their fingers in the AFC Championship. Somehow they made enough plays to move on to the grand finale. While his statline credits him with 2 interceptions, we know Brady threw 3. Sure the last one was negated because the Chiefs lined up offsides, but it was still a bad throw. When it comes to missed opportunities by Brady, the pass which really killed a great opportunity occurred in the red zone during the first few tics of the second quarter. It was at that time that Brady kissed away some almost guaranteed points with his 6th career postseason pick in the red zone.
Other huge missed opportunities from that game include not holding onto interceptions, having big plays wiped out by bad calls far from the play, questionable play calling/personnel being used, and failing to convert 4th and inches.
Whether we look at these missed plays as bad plays or missed opportunities, we can’t afford to have them two games in a row.
WIN TURNOVER BATTLE- Always a key to the game because typically when the Patriots don’t turnover the ball more than their opponent, they win. If Brady is going to hold true to his New Years resolution he needs to have more touchdown passes than interceptions today. While I really don’t care how the Patriots score their touchdowns today, if Brady can avoid interceptions today I’ll be quite happy. After pretty much throwing 3 last game, I’d say he’s good for a clean passing game this week.
For the season the Patriots once again lead the league with the least number of fumbles (0.6 per game). Unfortunately when they have fumbled the ball they typically lose possession of it (0.4 per game). While that’s still a pretty low number, it does suddenly put us tied with the Rams.
When it comes to recovering fumbles, the Rams have the best rate in the NFL with just under 67%. Should the ball hit the deck today, the Patriots need to be ready for it.
Who should the Patriots expect to fumble the ball? Jared Goff is second in the league with fumbles this season. He has fumbled at least once in his past 8 games. With Super Bowl nerves and all of those new slick footballs in play, I’d be shocked if he loses his handle less than a handful of times.
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