BOSTON SPORTS CHICK
  • BLOG
  • DEFLATEGATE
  • GUEST BLOGS
  • GENERAL SPORTS/HOT TOPICS

SHOULD THE PATRIOTS DEFER UNTIL THE SECOND HALF?

1/16/2014

0 Comments

 
Picture
Everyone knows that the Patriots' "move" is to defer possession of the ball until the second half as that has been their modus operandi (that's what M.O. stands for kids) for the past decade.  While in years' past it seemed like the Patriots would march down the field at the start of the second half and put up a quick seven, that doesn't seem to be the case this year.  Wondering
whether or not the second half possession move was still working, I looked over all of our beginning of a half possessions and came up with this.

The first thing I looked at was the Patriots' offensive production when they start a half with the ball.  When the Patriots start the game with the ball they average 1.9 points per possession.  So far they have had the first possession of the ball 7 times and managed 1 touchdown, 2 field goals, 0 turnovers and 4 punts.  With 17 games under their belts, that leaves 10 games where they got the ball to start the second half.  In these 10 games they've had 3 touchdowns, 0 field goals, 2 turnovers, 4 punts and 1 missed field goal.  Because one of the turnovers resulted in an immediate Jets touchdown, I came up with a scoring average of 1.4 points.  Looking at offensive production, it appears we are actually better off when we start the game with the ball.

Next I looked at the same statistic from a defensive point of view.  When the defense starts the game on the field they give up 1.3 points (1 touchdown, 2 field goals, 2 turnovers and 5 punts).  This statistic would drop to 0.6 if Dennard had made it a step or two further on last week's pick.  To start the second half the Pats' defense gives up 1.4 points (1 touchdown, 1 field goal, 0 turnovers, 4 punts, and 1 turnover on downs).  Now looking at it from the defensive point of view the edge does go to deferring to the second half.

Putting both of those things together it looks like a push from the Patriots' point of view.  However, taking a step back and looking at what the Broncos have done when using Bill's "move", I would say we want to give Peyton the ball to start the game.  Although the sample size for the Bronco's starting the game with the ball is small (4), their point differential is still pretty significant.  When Peyton starts the game with the ball in his hands he puts up an average of 1.75 points.  In the second half the offense has scored 7 touchdowns in 13 possessions and have a scoring rate of 4.2. 
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture
    Picture

    ARCHIVES

    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    March 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    June 2021
    April 2021
    February 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    April 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013

    OTHER BLOGS YOU SHOULD CHECK OUT

    New England Sports Talk
    Kap Lifestyle

    RSS Feed

    Picture
Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
Photo from Eric Kilby