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BREAKDOWN AND SCREENSHOTS OF THE PATRIOTS AFTER 1ST AND GOAL

12/26/2022

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If you thought the Patriots offense was terrible in the red zone, you were right.  Currently we are the worst in the NFL with a touchdown occuring only 38.5% of the time.  When it comes to playing at home, our scoring percentage is even lower (35.29%).  
​Just last season the team was in the top ten (7th) with a red zone touchdown scoring percentage of 63%.  How good were they at home?  Once entering the red zone the team scored a touchdown 75% of the time. 

The screenshots (taken from ESPN play-by-play) I've accumulated for this post will consist of what has happened when the Patriots have been sitting at first and goal.  It is of my opinion that there is way too much reliance on shotgun formation from the Patriots.

Earlier this year Kalyn Kahler wrote an article titled Why do NFL coaches call for shotgun at the goal line?  Maybe it's not a bad idea. In her article she points out that the teams who have success with this play calling typically have a mobile quarterback who is making a good decision based on what the defense is showing.  Unfortunately, almost all of the shotgun play calling by the Patriots has come with Mac Jones as the starter.  He is neither mobile nor a very good decision maker. 
​In total, the Patriots have had 20 1st and goal possessions this season.  Here is a breakdown for what has happened.  First up is the results of the first down play by quarterback.

Mac Jones-
  • 15 first and goal possessions
    • 1 spike to stop clock
    • 1 running play from under center- Pierre Strong with a touchdown
    • 13 1st down plays from shotgun
      • 4 incompletions
      • 1 sack (-8 yards)
      • 1 completion (8 yards)
      • 4 positive runs (+3, +2, +1, +4)
      • 3 negative runs (-1, -3, -3/fumble)
Bailey Zappe-
  • 5 first and goal possessions
    • all 5 were running plays from under center
      • 3 positive runs (+4, +3, +3)
      • 2 neutral runs (0, 0)

Next will be results of each of the 20 possessions.  This will also be broken down by quarterback.

Mac Jones-
  • 15 possessions- 8 touchdowns, 6 field goals, 1 turnover
  • 36 plays - 29 from shotgun
  • 8 touchdowns
    • 3 passing (2 from shotgun)
    • 5 rushing (1 from shotgun which was a Mac scramble)
  • scored on first 5 goal to go possessions of the season (all before injury)
Bailey Zappe-
  • 5 possessions- 4 touchdowns, 1 field goal (screwed on the Hunter Henry illegal touch)
  • 11 plays - 1 from shotgun
  • 4 touchdowns
    • 3 rushing
    • 1 passing​​​
​​Game 1 at Miami-  One possession with all 3 plays from shotgun, last one ending in a touchdown.  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 100%]
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Game 2 at Steelers- One possession consisting of 3 plays (2 from shotgun) Harris rushing touchdown (not from the gun).  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 50%]
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Game 3 vs. Ravens- 3 different possessions all resulting in touchdowns.  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 55.56%]
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Game 4 at Packers- 1 possession with two plays from under center.  Rushing touchdown for Harris.  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 54.55%].
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​

Game 5 vs Lions- no goal line possessions [Red zone scoring percentage for season 40%]

Game 6 at Browns- 3 goal line possessions, 2 touchdowns and 1 field goal.  Field goal came after the Hunter Henry illegal touch in the endzone call.  1 play from shotgun. [Red zone scoring percentage for season 45%]
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Game 7 vs. Bears- 1 possession, 1 touchdown on 2 plays from under center [Red zone scoring percentage for season 47.62%]
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​

Game 8 at Jets-  On possession, one field goal.  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 45.83%]
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Game 9 vs. Colts- Two first and goal possessions, 1 touchdown.  [Red zone scoring percentage for season 46.15%]
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Game 10 vs. Jets- No goal line possessions. [Red zone scoring percentage for season 42.86%]

Game 11 at Vikings- Two goal line possessions and two field goals.  One possession was at the end of the half without any timeouts left. The other was the Hunter Henry going to the ground replay call. [Red zone scoring percentage for season 38.71%]
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Game 12 vs. Bills- One first and goal possession from the 8 resulting in a field goal from the 21.  [Red zone touchdown percentage for season 37.5%]
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Game 13 at Cardinals- One 1st and goal from the 3 and an immediate rushing touchdown from Strong. [Red zone touchdown percentage for season 38.89%]
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Game 14 at Raiders- One possession eventually resulting in a field goal.  4th down touchdown off the board due to a false start. [Red zone touchdown percentage for season 37.84%]
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Game 15 vs Bengals- Two possession, one touchdown and one fumble.  ​[Red zone touchdown percentage for season 38.46%]
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