After having a nice bye week sitting atop the AFC, the Patriots are back to needing another road victory to get back on top of the conference. While tonight's game will not be an easy task, I feel that it is once again up to the Patriots to not lose the game. Read on for specifics.
WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE- The Patriots are 7-0 when they win the turnover battle and 2-4 when they lose or are even. The Colts lead the league with 29 takeaways while the Patriots are 3rd with 26. While they are both dead even with 16 turnovers this season, the Patriots have been much better both in recent games (0.7 a game over last 3 games), and on the road (1.2 per game). Conversely, the Colts have been struggling as of late (2 turnovers a game over last 3 games), and at home (1.6 turnovers per game at home).
3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS- Another place where the Patriots on the road are better than the Colts at home is 3rd down. Defensively the Patriots have been pretty consistent with stopping their opponents on third down. Overall their opponents are successful 36% of the time and 32% when they host New England. The Colts opponents are successful on 3rd down 39% of the time, but when they come into Lucas Oil Stadium, they suddenly up it to 44%. Offensively, both teams are neck and neck at 43.29% success for the Patriots and 42.59% success for the Colts.
RED ZONE- There is a place where the Patriots and Colts are far from even. While New England currently has the 2nd best red zone defense by only allowing touchdowns on 45.7% of opponents trips, the Colts are terrible. Indianapolis is the 3rd worst red zone defense in the NFL. They allow touchdowns on 71.1% of opponents trips inside the 20. With 13 games played, that is a crazy stat for a winning football team to own.
RED ZONE- There is a place where the Patriots and Colts are far from even. While New England currently has the 2nd best red zone defense by only allowing touchdowns on 45.7% of opponents trips, the Colts are terrible. Indianapolis is the 3rd worst red zone defense in the NFL. They allow touchdowns on 71.1% of opponents trips inside the 20. With 13 games played, that is a crazy stat for a winning football team to own.
WHAT SHOULD THE PATRIOTS DEFENSE TAKE AWAY?- We all know that Belichick doesn't let an opponent's best offensive player beat them. That being said, the Patriots need to stop Jonathan Taylor. This doesn't mean that the Patriots need to stop the run in general, just that they need to stop #28. While he is more of a running RB, he is still a part of the passing game. As a receiving back he's had 36 receptions on 43 passes. In total, he's accumulated 1,684 yards and 96 first downs this season. He is the offense. While the defense should be focused primarily on him tonight, they also need to keep an eye on Michael Pittman Jr.. Although Pittman hasn't been getting into the endzone lately, he has moved the chains 44 times. If the Patriots want to stop Taylor, getting off the field and not getting tired is key.
KNEE/ILLNESS/NOT INJURY RELATED- Whatever the heck that means, the Colts will be without their pro-bowl center Ryan Kelly. Since he wasn't fully at practice this week and didn't play in their last game, this isn't as big of a loss as it initially appears to be. Of course just like he makes inexperienced quarterback fall to pressure, Belichick will likely make Danny Pinter's second start at center a miserable experience.
DON'T SHOW TOO MUCH- Even though Frank Reich is supposedly going to make Mac Jones beat them, I don't anticipate seeing too much from him. Surely he'll throw it around 20 times or so, but I don't think the Colts will stop the run. Now, could Josh McDaniels stop the run with his play calling? Absolutely! Hopefully he watched Thursday Night's game and was yelling at the TV like the rest of us when the Chargers insisted on throwing for touchdowns instead of just running it in.
KNEE/ILLNESS/NOT INJURY RELATED- Whatever the heck that means, the Colts will be without their pro-bowl center Ryan Kelly. Since he wasn't fully at practice this week and didn't play in their last game, this isn't as big of a loss as it initially appears to be. Of course just like he makes inexperienced quarterback fall to pressure, Belichick will likely make Danny Pinter's second start at center a miserable experience.
DON'T SHOW TOO MUCH- Even though Frank Reich is supposedly going to make Mac Jones beat them, I don't anticipate seeing too much from him. Surely he'll throw it around 20 times or so, but I don't think the Colts will stop the run. Now, could Josh McDaniels stop the run with his play calling? Absolutely! Hopefully he watched Thursday Night's game and was yelling at the TV like the rest of us when the Chargers insisted on throwing for touchdowns instead of just running it in.
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