If you've been paying attention to Red Sox baseball this season, you know that the Red Sox run production is down. This is going to be a quick inside the numbers look at how far down the production is and how different our record would look if only we were scoring runs like we typically do.
As of July 8th Red Sox run production is down 26% from their average over the past five years. This season the team is averaging 3.75 runs per game while in th previous five seasons they averaged 5.21 runs per game. This means the Red Sox are scoring approximately 1.46 less runs per game.
I just took the time to look at the Red Sox win/loss record if they were to have scored either one or two more runs in each of their losing efforts. The following is what I found:
If the Red Sox were to have scored one additional run in regulation:
If we were to add 2 runs in regulation:
If the Red Sox were to have scored one additional run in regulation:
- 8 of their losses would have resulted in wins
- 13 of their losses would have had the game continue into extra innings
- 29 losses would have remained
- Assuming they were to have lost all of the extra inning games, the Red Sox record would currently be 47-42 (2nd place in AL East)
If we were to add 2 runs in regulation:
- 21 of the Red Sox losses would have resulted in wins
- 6 losses would have been turned into extra inning ballgames
- Only 23 games would have resulted in losses.
- Assuming they were to have lost all of the extra inning games, the Red Sox record would currently be 60-29 (Best record in baseball by 4 wins)
In conclusion if you had felt all along this season that the Red Sox were just one or two runs away from having a pretty good record you are correct. Unfortunately, it does not look like the team is any where close to getting back on track with their run production and if they do it'll probably be too little too late.
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