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RED SOX NEED TO HIT TANAKA EARLY TO BE SUCCESSFUL

4/22/2014

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Tonight will be a game of firsts for the Yankees and Red Sox.  Jacoby Ellsbury will be returning to Fenway for his first time wearing pinstripes.  Yankees pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka, will be making his first trip to Fenway and pitching his first game against the Red Sox. 
Jon Lester will be pitching in his fifth game of the season.  In his first 4 games, Lester has been pitching like he wants an extension or something.  Although he has a 2-2 record, he could easily be 4-0 if only his teammates would score some runs for him.  After pitching 2 games where his teammates earned a combined one run, Lester has received better run support lately.

For the season Lester has a 2.17 ERA over 19 innings.  He is averaging 109.3 pitches per game and has only given up 2 homeruns and walked 4 batters.  In his previous 14 starts against the Yankees, Lester has a 4.57 ERA.  Although he has only given up 6 homeruns to Yankees' batters, he has walked 36.  In his starts he only averages 80.2 innings.
Yankees'  batters who have had a significant amount of at bats against Lester are Derek Jeter (.333, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB and 11 K), Ichiro Suzuki (.333, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K) and Mark Teixeira (.222, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB and 17 K).  Having played one game against each other, Ellsbury went 1 for 2 with 1 walk. 

Since the Red Sox have never faced Tanaka, I looked into his numbers to see if anything stood out.  The first thing I notice was that he is much more successful getting out lefties.  The 45 lefties Tanaka has faced have a combined .133 average, 1 HR and .352 OPS.  Righties are hitting .250 with 1 HR and .659 OPS. 

The second thing I noticed was that his worst average is during pitches 1-15.  In other words, the Red Sox will need to jump on him in the first inning and not wait around.  Opposing batters are hitting .368 in his first 15 pitches of the game.

The final thing I noticed was that he likes to throw a first pitch strike in most situations.  While most pitchers may want to get ahead in the count, they might not put the ball over the plate to get that strike.  Of the 73 batters he has faced, 54 have been the recipient of a first pitch strike.  There are two situations where Tanaka will typically throw a first pitch ball.  One is after he gives up a hit and the other is when he faces someone who got a hit off of him in a prior at bat.    
 
Tonight's Red Sox Lineup

  1. Sizemore, RF
  2. Pedroia, 2B
  3. Ortiz, DH
  4. Napoli, 1B
  5. Gomes, LF
  6. Pierzynski, C
  7. Bogaerts, SS
  8. Holt, 3B
  9. Bradley, CF
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