The weather forecast and players who are available to play do not change the fact that the Patriots and Bills are very evenly matched in pretty every category. Sure, the Bills depend more on the play of their quarterback since he throws more often and is the team's second leading rusher, but big picture, they are very even. Below are the things the Patriots need to do to secure a victory.
ERROR FREE SPECIAL TEAMS- What had been a strength of the Patriots for the past two decades has suddenly become a point of consternation all too frequently. Depending on where you look, there have been between 9 and 11 blocked punts in the NFL this season (no joke, there doesn't appear to be a definitive number). Regardless of where you look, the Patriots lead the league with 3 of them. The Patriots' record in games where they have a punt blocked? Well that's 0-3.
Besides not having a punt blocked, if we could also avoid giving up field position by having any kickoffs go out of bounds.
In the last matchup we saw N'Keal Harry change the flow of the game by having a punt hit him when he should have been nowhere near the ball. Was that a coaching error having him back there, or does he just not have the football sense to understand and deliver what he was being asked to do? Either way it was awful.
While I would love for the Patriots to have a game-changing play on special teams, I'll settle for boring, run of the mill plays.
Besides not having a punt blocked, if we could also avoid giving up field position by having any kickoffs go out of bounds.
In the last matchup we saw N'Keal Harry change the flow of the game by having a punt hit him when he should have been nowhere near the ball. Was that a coaching error having him back there, or does he just not have the football sense to understand and deliver what he was being asked to do? Either way it was awful.
While I would love for the Patriots to have a game-changing play on special teams, I'll settle for boring, run of the mill plays.
TURNOVER BATTLE- Win the turnover battle, win the game. It almost is that simple. This year's team is a perfect 7-0 when other teams cough the ball up more than we do. To win the turnover battle, you need to make sure you catch interceptions. Now if it's more of a contested throw between Diggs and a Patriot, I'll be happy with the ball just being knocked away and nobody trying to be a hero. Other than that, if the ball hits you in the numbers, catch it. Last week Mac struggled in back to back possessions and had his interception number hit double digits on the season. With both interceptions occuring on third down with 3 or less yards to go, I have to put some of the blame on McDaniels play calling. Way too much passing on third and short lately.
ENOUGH WITH THE FALSE STARTS- False starts are killing the Patriots this year. While Hunter Henry has had a great season in most aspects, the guy has had some horrible penalties. Another player who is good for a false start or untimely holding penalty almost every game is Isaiah Wynn. Off the top of my head I'd suspect that close to 75% of the Patriots' false starts this season were when they had 1 yard to gain.
CONTAIN JOSH ALLEN- I'm more concerned with a running Josh Allen than a passing Josh Allen. Nothing against his passing game, it's just more of trust in our secondary to break up the pass or keep the play in front of them. Since the Patriots are currently struggling to tackle running backs, it's best to not turn Josh into a de facto ball carrier. I imagine there's been a lot of coaching on the defence about not getting caught in the backfield today.
MAKE THE BILLS STOP US- Sean McDermott didn't like all of the credit Belichick was getting for running the ball all game long in the first matchup. I personally hope the Patriots come out running and don't stop until the Bills prove they can stop us. Realistically, I doubt that will happen, because McDaniels is going to be calling the plays and will likely have free reign most of the game. At minimum, I hope McDaniels stops with the shotgun plays in short yardage.
RANDOM FACTS- Mac has thrown 7 of his 10 interceptions against the NFC. He has yet to have a turnover against an AFC East opponent. The Patriots haven't had a 100 yard receiver this season. They had 3 last year and 13 in 2011.
CONTAIN JOSH ALLEN- I'm more concerned with a running Josh Allen than a passing Josh Allen. Nothing against his passing game, it's just more of trust in our secondary to break up the pass or keep the play in front of them. Since the Patriots are currently struggling to tackle running backs, it's best to not turn Josh into a de facto ball carrier. I imagine there's been a lot of coaching on the defence about not getting caught in the backfield today.
MAKE THE BILLS STOP US- Sean McDermott didn't like all of the credit Belichick was getting for running the ball all game long in the first matchup. I personally hope the Patriots come out running and don't stop until the Bills prove they can stop us. Realistically, I doubt that will happen, because McDaniels is going to be calling the plays and will likely have free reign most of the game. At minimum, I hope McDaniels stops with the shotgun plays in short yardage.
RANDOM FACTS- Mac has thrown 7 of his 10 interceptions against the NFC. He has yet to have a turnover against an AFC East opponent. The Patriots haven't had a 100 yard receiver this season. They had 3 last year and 13 in 2011.
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