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CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE WEEK 7: PATRIOTS VS. JETS

10/24/2021

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Instead of calling this a must win game, I'm going to refer to it as a must not lose game.  We've already had one bad loss this season, we certainly can not afford two.  Had we actually won one of those moral victory games that we couldn't finish, then this game wouldn't be quite as important.  Yet, week 7 here we are looking for our first home win.
In addition to coming out of today's game with a victory under our belt, we also need to come out feeling good about several aspects of our game. 

SPECIAL TEAMS- One place we really need to feel good about after today's game is our special teams.  Remember when we were game in and game out the best special teams unit season after season.  Yeah, that was great.  While we really haven't had a gamebreaking return game, we always had the best overall special teams unit.  We would regularly pin our opponents deep, and block their punts and field goals.  This season we have had way too many miscues on special teams.  Today would be a great day to steady the ship and not have errors on special teams.  Looking to the future, maybe the Giants will cut their losses with Judge and we can be reunited.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS- In our first meeting, Mac Jones was undoubtedly the better of the two rookies. For the season, he's also been better.  While quarterback ratings are always a statistic that doesn't mean a whole lot, it does tell you something about overall quarterback play.  Looking at it for the season, here are some things which stand out for Mac and Zach.  Wilsons' best rating was 97.3 against the Titans.  Jones' best rating came against the Cowboys last week (119).  It was the first game this season where the Cowboys had a quarterback post 100 or better against them (Brady 97, Herbert 87.2, Hurts 86, and Darnold 85).  Mac's current quarterback rating for the month of October is 103.5.  

When it comes to interceptions Wilson has 9 to Mac's 6.  Since Wilson has played one less game, it's actually a bit worse than it looks.  Of course the reason for that big discrepancy has a lot to do with the first matchup where the Patriots caught 4 of Zach's passes.  With a secondary that is losing its parts and has recently played to the level of their opponents, we can't bank on the easy picks and should be leary of giving up big touchdowns like we did against Houston.
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SET THE TONE EARLY-  The Jets are 1-4 and have been outscored 121 to 67.  Broken down by quarter:

1st Quarter- 0-5  outscored 0-30 (yes, no 1st quarter points)
2nd Quarter- 1-3-1 outscored 13-45
3rd Quarter- 3-2 have outscored opponents 17-12
4th Quarter- 2-2-1 have tied opponents 34-34
Overtime- 1-0 have outscored opponents 3-0

The Jets have proven to be a much better second half team on both offense and defense.  Will this learning curve improvement transfer over to a full game against the Patriots or just a better second half performance?  

Patriots by quarter:

1st Quarter- 2-4 have been outscored 24-30
2nd Quarter- 2-2-2 have outscored opponents 32-28
3rd Quarter- 1-5 have been outscored 21-35
4th Quarter- 4-0-2 have outscored opponents 48-28
Overtime- 0-1 have been outscored 6-0

TURNOVERS- The Patriots have won the turnover battle once this season.  Yes, it was in the week 2 Jets game.  Here are some fun facts about turnovers and today's game.
  • The Jets have the most interceptions thrown this season - 9
  • The Jets are the only team without an interception

RED ZONE-  Coming into today's game, both teams are top 5 defenses in the red zone.  Offensively they are two of the worst at 29th and 30th.  While it seemed like the Patriots might have figured things out last week as they were perfect on offense in the red zone, the fact that Dallas' red zone defense is bottom 10 might have had something to do with that.
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