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IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY, WHICH PICK WOULD THE CELTICS GET?

2/24/2014

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Tonight the Celtics play the final game of their west coast road trip.  Having gone 0-3 during the trip, the Celtics currently have a record of 19-38.  If the season were to end today, the Celtics would have the fourth worst record in the NBA.  With the fourth
worst record comes an 11.9% chance of getting the number one pick in the draft.  It would also bring with it a guarantee of no worse than the 7th pick in the draft. 

If you don't already know how the process works, it goes like this:


  • The14 teams with the worst records are involved in the lottery
  • 14 ping pong balls numbered 1-14 are placed into a container
  • 4 balls are pulled out to create a 4 digit combination where order doesn't matter (ie. 4-8-11-2 is the same as 11-4-8-2)
  • The team who has that combination gets the first pick
  • The balls are returned to the container and 4 more numbers are selected to determine who gets the 2nd pick
  • Once again the balls are returned and the third combination is selected
  • Once the top three picks are determined the remaining 11 teams pick in order of worst record to best
  • The number of 4 digit combinations each team gets is determined by their final record.  The team with the worst record gets 250 and the team with the best record gets 5. 
  • In all, 1,000 of the 1,001 possible combinations are given out

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Possibly the future way to determine picks in the NBA. (Grantland)
If you think the system needs to change, then you might be interested in a proposal which was shared by Grantland this past December.  Instead of determining picks based on records thereby encouraging teams to tank, the proposed system would put each team on a rotation based on the diagram above.  If you had the #1 pick this year you would get the number 30 pick next year.  Every 5th year you would be guaranteed one of the top 7 picks (in red).
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