The Patriots are 2-2 at home this year. If we only count games that Mac started, then we are looking at 1-2. Should we total up Mac's home games from last year and we are looking at 5-7, not much of a home field advantage. Usually a pathetic road team, the Jets are a perfect 4-0 on the road this season. While Vegas usually gives the home team 3 points before they lay down the spread, giving 3 points to the Patriots this week is unwarranted in my opinion. Can the Patriots win today? Of course they can, read on for what they need to do.
LIMIT TURNOVERS- This is always a key to victory. Even in the Brady years, winning the turnover battle was the simplest way to almost guarantee a win. While the Patriots' defense is one of the best with causing turnovers, the fact that the offense struggles with ball security has us sitting at 0 with the turnover differential. So where are we currently when winning the turnover battle? The Patriots are 3-1 when winning the turnover battle and a combined 11-1 over the past 2 years. For the past 2 years the team is 2-9 when losing the battle and 2-1 when even.
BIG PLAY BY THE DEFENSE- Even if the Patriots offense doesn't turn over the ball, the best way for the Patriots to win is if the defense has at least one game changing play. Zach Wilson has thrown 16 career interceptions. Since 7 of those interceptions have come against the Patriots, I'd imagine even on a good day he'll have one pass that is easy pickins for New England. Should the Patriots take advantage of an ill-advised pass or a tipped ball and turn it into a defensive score or give the offense ridiculously good field position, a victory is all but imminent. Over the bye week I looked into:DO THE PATRIOTS WIN GAMES WITHOUT A GAME CHANGING DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS PLAY?
AVOID SELF-INFLICTED PENALTIES- Playing a penalty free game in the current NFL is almost impossible. Avoiding pre-snap penalties, well that shouldn't be much to ask for. With 9 games under their belts, the Patriots have accumulated 12 false start penalties. Last season they had a total of 17 which was almost triple of the 6 they had during the 2020 season.
The last time the teams faced each other the Patriots were flagged 7 times for an accepted 6 penalties. Three of the times they were flagged were just plain stupid. The penalty which stands out the most is getting called for too many men on the field on offense. This came after a first down and wasn't even during crunch time. So instead of cruising down the field and having 1st and 10 on the Jets 30 with just over 3 minutes left to the half, the Patriots are sitting at 1st and 15 on the 35. Yes, they came up 1 yard short. Of course going for 4th and 1 via a Mac Jones pass while the ball is on the Jets 21 was a horrible decision.
The last time the teams faced each other the Patriots were flagged 7 times for an accepted 6 penalties. Three of the times they were flagged were just plain stupid. The penalty which stands out the most is getting called for too many men on the field on offense. This came after a first down and wasn't even during crunch time. So instead of cruising down the field and having 1st and 10 on the Jets 30 with just over 3 minutes left to the half, the Patriots are sitting at 1st and 15 on the 35. Yes, they came up 1 yard short. Of course going for 4th and 1 via a Mac Jones pass while the ball is on the Jets 21 was a horrible decision.
SCORE TOUCHDOWNS- We've been relying on Nick Folk to score points all season. While he is very reliable, he'll be having a different holder today. In case you missed it, Jake Bailey is on the IR and Michael Palardy will be assuming the punting and holding duties. Palardy was originally put on the practice squad on November 1st. It is my opinion that Bailey's back hasn't been right for a while and he and the team were having him try and work through it because of his holding duties. In case you were wondering, Palardy is a lefty punter. Since the Patriots have struggled mightily in the red zone this season, it would be nice to see if they can just start to punch it in when they are given first and goal. Whether it be direct snaps to a running back or 4 straight handoffs from under center, I don't care. Just stop with with ill advised passes and runs out of shotgun. With David Andrews back in the lineup, the team should have all the push they need to punch it in for 6.
ROOKIE PLAY- Both teams are getting a lot from their rookie class. The Jets are relying on wide receiver Garrett Wilson to move the ball down the field. This season he's had 3 games with 90+ yards. One of his best games came against the Patriots as he caught 6 of 7 passes thrown his direction for 115 yards and 4 first downs. With Corey Davis still not available, keeping Wilson in check is high priority. On the other side of the ball Sauce Gardner is putting up some solid stats. Currently he has 30 solo tackles and 14 assisted. You'd think big tackle numbers means he lets everyone catch balls. Well, he's had 2 interceptions and a league leading 13 passes defended. Those a pretty good rookie numbers. Note to Mac, do not throw in his direction.
ROOKIE PLAY- Both teams are getting a lot from their rookie class. The Jets are relying on wide receiver Garrett Wilson to move the ball down the field. This season he's had 3 games with 90+ yards. One of his best games came against the Patriots as he caught 6 of 7 passes thrown his direction for 115 yards and 4 first downs. With Corey Davis still not available, keeping Wilson in check is high priority. On the other side of the ball Sauce Gardner is putting up some solid stats. Currently he has 30 solo tackles and 14 assisted. You'd think big tackle numbers means he lets everyone catch balls. Well, he's had 2 interceptions and a league leading 13 passes defended. Those a pretty good rookie numbers. Note to Mac, do not throw in his direction.
JONESING FOR A HIGHLIGHT REAL PLAY- There are 4 players with the surname Jones on this year's Patriots team. Each of the Jones brothers has been a significant contributor to the team and the outcomes of games. Should one of them be the star of highlight play today, that should be a key to the Patriots heading into their Thanksgiving game with a 6-4 record. Going out on a limb, I'm going to predict a big return from Marcus Jones. Maybe the coaches will give the fans what they want with a showing of Marcus on the offensive side of the ball for a play or 2.
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