Tom Brady- (picture from sportstationic.blogspot.com)
If you watched Sunday's AFC Championship you got to see Tom Brady make a few errant throws to some teammates who were open. As a Patriots fan I was obviously disappointed in the execution of the plays. In addition I also questioned a few of
the play calls as they resulted in some pretty quick 3 and outs and it seemed like we were much too quick to abandon the run. Of the first 6 plays from scrimmage 4 of them were pass plays, 2 of which were completions for a total of 11 yards. We pretty much took ourselves out of the game by using less than 3 minutes of games time on our first two possession while having two straight 3 and outs.
As the game progressed I got to see more errant throws by Brady and some pretty spectacular ones by Peyton Manning. I then posed the following question on my Facebook account, "Does anyone really think that Brady is better than Manning?" and started a bit of a debate with my friends. I then decided to do a little research into Brady's accuracy and put together some information that I'm now going to share with you.
Based on my observations, it seems like Brady is struggling to throw the ball down field. Looking at how many big plays he has isn't really useful because the Patriots' offense is built with YAC (yards after the catch) built into the plays. So seeing that Brady has a certain number of 20+ yard plays really has little to do with his ability to throw the ball down field and more to do with what the receiver does once he catches it. Because of this, I had to go into Brady's split statistics which show the distance the ball was thrown.
As the game progressed I got to see more errant throws by Brady and some pretty spectacular ones by Peyton Manning. I then posed the following question on my Facebook account, "Does anyone really think that Brady is better than Manning?" and started a bit of a debate with my friends. I then decided to do a little research into Brady's accuracy and put together some information that I'm now going to share with you.
Based on my observations, it seems like Brady is struggling to throw the ball down field. Looking at how many big plays he has isn't really useful because the Patriots' offense is built with YAC (yards after the catch) built into the plays. So seeing that Brady has a certain number of 20+ yard plays really has little to do with his ability to throw the ball down field and more to do with what the receiver does once he catches it. Because of this, I had to go into Brady's split statistics which show the distance the ball was thrown.
For the 2013 regular season Brady completed 78% of his passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, 70% 1-10 yards, 47% 11-20, 23% 21-30, 31% 31-40 and 17% 41+. If you add up the total number of completions in the 11+ range and divide it by the total number of attempts for the same range you will get a 39% completion rate. This season Peyton Manning has a 53% success rate for that same range. If we change the formula so that we are only looking at passes 21+, then Brady has a success rate of 25% to Peyton's 45%. If we throw out the passes beyond 40 yards then the numbers are Brady 25% and Manning 44%. When I watch the games, it appears to me that Brady's drop off starts to occur at about 15 yards. Unfortunately, I don't know of any place to get that data.
Now to be truthful, the numbers Manning is putting up this year are just flat out ridiculous, so using the original formula I found out the success rate for a few more quarterbacks. Again, this is based on completions for passes which are thrown greater than 10 yards. Drew Brees 55%, Matt Stafford 44%, Matt Ryan 50%, Philip Rivers 57%, Andy Dalton 38%, Carson Palmer 48%, Ben Roethlisberger 46%, Ryan Tannehill 45%, Joe Flacco 34%, Tony Romo 45%, Alex Smith 47%, Geno Smith 43%, EJ Manuel 38%, RGIII 40%. (Now go back and read that list using Bucky Dents' middle name for all of them)
Now, if you want to blame it on Brady not having receivers, you need to stop right there. Several of those players have less talented people to throw the ball to. In addition, this graphic made by Cian Fahey shows the accuracy of Brady's passes during the regular season. Basically green means accurate and red means inaccurate. He's also taken out passes which were clearly a breakdown on communication or the result of the receiver doing the wrong thing. If you would like to read up on what Cian did and see some of his other graphics click here.
Now to be truthful, the numbers Manning is putting up this year are just flat out ridiculous, so using the original formula I found out the success rate for a few more quarterbacks. Again, this is based on completions for passes which are thrown greater than 10 yards. Drew Brees 55%, Matt Stafford 44%, Matt Ryan 50%, Philip Rivers 57%, Andy Dalton 38%, Carson Palmer 48%, Ben Roethlisberger 46%, Ryan Tannehill 45%, Joe Flacco 34%, Tony Romo 45%, Alex Smith 47%, Geno Smith 43%, EJ Manuel 38%, RGIII 40%. (Now go back and read that list using Bucky Dents' middle name for all of them)
Now, if you want to blame it on Brady not having receivers, you need to stop right there. Several of those players have less talented people to throw the ball to. In addition, this graphic made by Cian Fahey shows the accuracy of Brady's passes during the regular season. Basically green means accurate and red means inaccurate. He's also taken out passes which were clearly a breakdown on communication or the result of the receiver doing the wrong thing. If you would like to read up on what Cian did and see some of his other graphics click here.
Tom Brady's accuracy chart- created by Cian Fahey for Football Outsiders
Cian's research also includes some pictures to show where the ball landed in relationship to the intended receiver and images showing the pass protection Brady was getting.
Looking at all this information, I think Brady was in fact inaccurate with his throws this year. I think that this is a picture of what is to come. If the Patriots want to continue winning with Brady they need to continue running the ball and making short throws. In my opinion we do not need to spend the offseason chasing after a wide receiver who can stretch the field. We need to find another guy who can catch a short pass and take a beating.
Looking at all this information, I think Brady was in fact inaccurate with his throws this year. I think that this is a picture of what is to come. If the Patriots want to continue winning with Brady they need to continue running the ball and making short throws. In my opinion we do not need to spend the offseason chasing after a wide receiver who can stretch the field. We need to find another guy who can catch a short pass and take a beating.
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