Here we are the first day of November and the Patriots are pretty much in a must win games against the division leading Buffalo Bills. While the Patriots usually don't escape the AFC East unscathed, this year they really need to to after struggling against their non-conference opponents.
THIRD DOWN- The Bills are the second best team in the NFL when it comes to converting on 3rd down as they've converted on 52.4% of their attempts. They are also a perfect 3 for 3 on 4th down conversions. Getting the Bills in a few 3 and outs would be huge as they are an NFL best with 7.14 plays per drive. While I've felt like the Patriots have given up a lot of big gains on 3rd and long, when I started to look into each games play by play stats I realized that they've actually had a lot of huge pass interference and holding penalties on 3rd downs this season.
TURNOVERS- Always the key to success, winning the turnover margin. While looking back at stats for the past 20 years isn't super useful, the game results when considering turnovers is very telling regardless of who is taking the snaps.
If you were thinking that the Patriots turnover margin felt worse than -2, it could be because they are worst in the league with .241 turnovers per drive.
- Winning TO margin- 162-18 (2-0 in 2020)
- Losing TO margins- 40-47 (0-3 in 2020)
- Even - 37-22 (0-1 in 2020)
If you were thinking that the Patriots turnover margin felt worse than -2, it could be because they are worst in the league with .241 turnovers per drive.
OFFENSE- Just run the dang ball. Had that actually been our game plan instead of trying to spread the ball around and not be a one trick pony, I think we'd have at least another win under our belts. With the offensive line being pretty close to normal, we should be able to gain some yards on the ground and not be looking at 3rd and longs all day.
DEFENSE- Don't give up cheap 1st downs because you are holding. Take better angles so you make a tackle and not the wrong end of a highlight reel. Stop Singletary in the backfield and assume Diggs is going to get the ball thrown to him on every play. Don't be stupid, yet don't let up when Josh Allen is about to be sacked.
SPECIAL TEAMS- If the special teams ends up being a factor, I hope it's not due to an error on our part. With rain and 43 degrees being the forecast, things could get a little sloppy. Gunner has had a few close calls lately, hopefully those close calls were enough for him to be a bit more cautious with the ball. Yes, we would all like to see him break loose for a big gain, but that's not going to happen when you run over someone and do a somersault.
Reminder that Corey Bojorquez punts for the Bills. Of his 16 punts, 11 have been inside the 20. Bailey has had 11 of his 15 punts drop inside the 20.
Knock on wood that Folk continues to make his kicks when called upon. Tyler Bass has struggled with kicks 30-39 yards, as he's only 3 for 6 and 12 for 17 overall.
DEFENSE- Don't give up cheap 1st downs because you are holding. Take better angles so you make a tackle and not the wrong end of a highlight reel. Stop Singletary in the backfield and assume Diggs is going to get the ball thrown to him on every play. Don't be stupid, yet don't let up when Josh Allen is about to be sacked.
SPECIAL TEAMS- If the special teams ends up being a factor, I hope it's not due to an error on our part. With rain and 43 degrees being the forecast, things could get a little sloppy. Gunner has had a few close calls lately, hopefully those close calls were enough for him to be a bit more cautious with the ball. Yes, we would all like to see him break loose for a big gain, but that's not going to happen when you run over someone and do a somersault.
Reminder that Corey Bojorquez punts for the Bills. Of his 16 punts, 11 have been inside the 20. Bailey has had 11 of his 15 punts drop inside the 20.
Knock on wood that Folk continues to make his kicks when called upon. Tyler Bass has struggled with kicks 30-39 yards, as he's only 3 for 6 and 12 for 17 overall.
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