People love to talk about how the AFC East is weak. In December I did some research about that topic and wrote apost which refutes that fallacy. The other day someone on twitter argued that the "Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have a combined 10 playoff appearances since 2000" so, I'm wrong and the AFC East sucks......Well, originally, I was going to respond to his tweet with a tweet of my own. Quickly I realized that my response could not have a character limit and would be much better as a blog post.
OLD AFC EAST- Yes, it's true. Since 2000 the other three teams of the AFC have only made the playoffs a combined 10 times. To be fair, I'm going to throw out the years 2000 and 2001 for most of this research because that is before the the NFL had a realignment which took the AFC East from consisting of the Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Colts and Bills to the current 4 team AFC East. In doing so I'm pulling out 3 of the non-Patriot AFC East playoff appearances. So, now we are down to 7 appearances during 15 years.
REST OF DIVISION PLAYING FOR WILD CARD- Of the past 15 seasons, the Patriots have won the East 13 times. The Jets won in 2002 which was the first year of the current AFC East. The Dolphins won in 2008, you know the year where Brady was out for the season. Other than those outliers, when playing in the AFC East during the Brady/Belichick era the other teams are playing for a Wild Card. With 4 divisions in the AFC and 30 Wild Card positions up for grabs, it is expected that each division should have earned 7.5 Wild Card appearance. Below is a table showing how many Wild Card spots each division has earned since 2002.
AT FIRST GLANCE- If you quickly look at the table you will see that the AFC East is bringing up the rear when it comes to earning a Wild Card while the North is dominating. Any of the years which are in red are quite deserving of looking a little further into. Lucky for you, I've done all the work for you.
2002- The Jets, Patriots and Dolphins all finished at 9-7 with the Jets winning the division tie-breaker. The Browns ended up winning a Wild Card spot at 9-7 because they had a better conference record at 7-5 (NE was 6-6). The Dolphins also had a 7-5 conference record, but were already eliminated at an earlier step of the tie-breaker process. So, in 2002 the East lost a tie-breaker to the North.
2003- The Dolphins finished 10-6. The Ravens won their division at 10-6 and the Broncos got a WC at 10-6. The Broncos had a better conference record (9-3) than the Dolphins (7-5). It is worth noting that the bottom two teams of the west were 4-12 while the bottom teams of the east were both 6-10.
2007- The Patriots went 16-0. I'll admit the rest of the East wasn't very good that year even if you take out their 2 losses each to the Patriots. The South earned both of the WC that year. That year the south played the west which sucked as the two bottom teams were both 4-12.
2002- The Jets, Patriots and Dolphins all finished at 9-7 with the Jets winning the division tie-breaker. The Browns ended up winning a Wild Card spot at 9-7 because they had a better conference record at 7-5 (NE was 6-6). The Dolphins also had a 7-5 conference record, but were already eliminated at an earlier step of the tie-breaker process. So, in 2002 the East lost a tie-breaker to the North.
2003- The Dolphins finished 10-6. The Ravens won their division at 10-6 and the Broncos got a WC at 10-6. The Broncos had a better conference record (9-3) than the Dolphins (7-5). It is worth noting that the bottom two teams of the west were 4-12 while the bottom teams of the east were both 6-10.
2007- The Patriots went 16-0. I'll admit the rest of the East wasn't very good that year even if you take out their 2 losses each to the Patriots. The South earned both of the WC that year. That year the south played the west which sucked as the two bottom teams were both 4-12.
2008- With an 11-5 record the Patriots lost a tie-breaker to the Ravens. The Chargers won their division with an 8-8 record. The third place Jets were 9-7 that season. So, a tough conference doomed the East from lucking into a WC.
2011- The North got both WC spots. They played the South that year where the bottom two teams combined for 7 wins. This is the second time since the realignment where a division has won both WC spots. Both times, the division they got matched up against was weak.
2013- This time the West ended up with all the WC spots. They played the South who had their bottom 2 teams finish the season with a combined 6 wins.
2014- This was the North's turn to play the South. The North got both WC positions as the bottom 2 teams from the South now combined for a total of 5 wins.
2015- No WC for the East this season. The Jets finished the season at 10-6,while the Texans won their weak division at 9-7. The Steelers got the WC over the Jets because of their cumulative records against common opponents (Browns, Colts, Patriots, and Raiders). The Steelers went 4-1 with their only loss to the Patriots. They got to play the Browns twice and both victories are included in their 4-1 record. The Jets were 3-2 against that same group. They split with the Patriots but had a loss to the Raiders. The Jets loss against the Raiders came one week after their loss against the Patriots. Both games were on the road.
CONCLUSION- Just looking at the number of playoff appearances a division earns can be very misleading when determining how good it is. It is a lot easier for a division which consistently has 2 bad teams to score a WC spot via the second place team having a better record than another divisions second place team. Combine that with the fact that each time a division earned both WC spots they were also paired against the weakest division shows that a bit of luck comes into play each season.
2011- The North got both WC spots. They played the South that year where the bottom two teams combined for 7 wins. This is the second time since the realignment where a division has won both WC spots. Both times, the division they got matched up against was weak.
2013- This time the West ended up with all the WC spots. They played the South who had their bottom 2 teams finish the season with a combined 6 wins.
2014- This was the North's turn to play the South. The North got both WC positions as the bottom 2 teams from the South now combined for a total of 5 wins.
2015- No WC for the East this season. The Jets finished the season at 10-6,while the Texans won their weak division at 9-7. The Steelers got the WC over the Jets because of their cumulative records against common opponents (Browns, Colts, Patriots, and Raiders). The Steelers went 4-1 with their only loss to the Patriots. They got to play the Browns twice and both victories are included in their 4-1 record. The Jets were 3-2 against that same group. They split with the Patriots but had a loss to the Raiders. The Jets loss against the Raiders came one week after their loss against the Patriots. Both games were on the road.
CONCLUSION- Just looking at the number of playoff appearances a division earns can be very misleading when determining how good it is. It is a lot easier for a division which consistently has 2 bad teams to score a WC spot via the second place team having a better record than another divisions second place team. Combine that with the fact that each time a division earned both WC spots they were also paired against the weakest division shows that a bit of luck comes into play each season.
If you like what you've read here, share with your friends and follow @BOSsportschick on twitter
RSS Feed
