With one win the Patriots earn a trip to Kansas City. While I wouldn’t pack my bags just yet, regardless of how well the Chargers play today, it’s still up to the Patriots to win or lose the game.
HOME/AWAY RECORDS- By now you’ve probably heard that the Patriots are undefeated at home and the Chargers are excellent on the road. While win/loss records do prove those two points correct, a closer look at the games and the opponents makes the Chargers away record not very impressive. Here’s a short look at their away wins for 2018:
Week 2- 31-10 over Buffalo in Josh Allen’s first start
Week 6- 38-14 over Cleveland (Browns were 2-3-1)
Week 9- 25-17 over Seattle (coming out of bye, Seahawks were 4-4)
Week 10- 20-6 over Oakland (Raiders finished 4-12)
Week 13- 33-30 over Pittsburgh (game winning field goal on 3rd attempt- blown calls by officials)
Week 15- 29-28 over Kansas City (this is an impressive win)
Week 17- 23-9 over Denver (Broncos finished 6-10 on season)
Week 2- 31-10 over Buffalo in Josh Allen’s first start
Week 6- 38-14 over Cleveland (Browns were 2-3-1)
Week 9- 25-17 over Seattle (coming out of bye, Seahawks were 4-4)
Week 10- 20-6 over Oakland (Raiders finished 4-12)
Week 13- 33-30 over Pittsburgh (game winning field goal on 3rd attempt- blown calls by officials)
Week 15- 29-28 over Kansas City (this is an impressive win)
Week 17- 23-9 over Denver (Broncos finished 6-10 on season)
SPECIAL TEAMS- Missed field goals and extra points have become en vogue in the playoffs. While it’s always possible for Gostkowski to miss a big kick, it’s highly probable that the Chargers will have some kicks blow up in their faces today. While I think the Patriots will dominate special teams today, I am still nervous about Edelman fielding a punt when he should let it go or call fair catch.
RUNNING GAME- The team with more yards on the ground will win the game. Heading into the game Sony Michel is healthy and Melvin Gordon is not. Since Philip Rivers isn’t very mobile, stopping the run of the Chargers becomes a bit easier. In my opinion, Josh McDaniels needs to keep feeding Sony Michel the ball. The guy very really loses yards. The plays where he is “stopped” at the line of scrimmage frequently end up being 3 yard gains. On 1st and 10, Sony is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per target. Teammate Rex Burkhead is averaging only 3 yards per carry and 6 yards per target on 1st and 10. While he’s considered a 3rd down back, James White is pretty effective on first and 10 himself. This season, White is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per target.
QUARTERBACK PLAY- You might have heard that Philip Rivers has been on fire lately. I have no idea where that lie has come from, but Rivers has thrown 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions over his last 6 games. His line has also allowed him to be sacked 14 times over that 6 game span. Despite Rivers’ struggles over the past 6 games, the Chargers have gone 5-1.
In his last 5 games, Brady has thrown 10 touchdowns and 4 picks. Over that span, he’s been sacked 5 times. For 4 of those games Brady was mostly concerned about staying healthy. With the season on the line, and a home field advantage, Brady will be head and shoulders the better quarterback in the game.
In his last 5 games, Brady has thrown 10 touchdowns and 4 picks. Over that span, he’s been sacked 5 times. For 4 of those games Brady was mostly concerned about staying healthy. With the season on the line, and a home field advantage, Brady will be head and shoulders the better quarterback in the game.
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