Mark my words, Vince Wilfork and the Patriots will be happy they stuck together.
Last weekend I felt pretty good about how well my 53 man roster compared to Belichick's. Now with Ryan Mallett having been traded and Danny Aiken back with the team, I'm feeling even better with my foresight. As the title states, this is my attempt at predicting the Patriots defensive outcomes for the season.
Prior to making my predictions I looked at some stats from last year's team. As many of you will recall, the Patriots defensive unit started off last season on a great note. After their first three games they were ranked 9th overall for total yards with 309. They were ranked 6th for passing defense (188.3 yards) and 24th for rushing defense (120.7 yards). More importantly they were ranked second for points allowed (34) and could be tied for first (27) if Stevan Ridley didn’t assume he was down when he coughed up the ball during week one. Unfortunately week four was where the injury bug would take out victim number one, Vince Wilfork. From that point on the team would see more injuries to the defense resulting in more yards and points for opposing teams.
By the end of the regular season the Patriots would drop to 26th in total yards (373.1), 18th in passing (239) and 30th for rushing defense (134). Amazingly they would still be in the top ten for points allowed with 21.1 per game.
By the end of the regular season the Patriots would drop to 26th in total yards (373.1), 18th in passing (239) and 30th for rushing defense (134). Amazingly they would still be in the top ten for points allowed with 21.1 per game.
In my opinion, this season is going to be a great one for the Patriots defense. As usual they will bend but not break. Overall, I believe they will give up an average of 15 points per game. Just like fantasy football, this prediction includes any opposing team scores which may be the fault of the offense or special teams.
When it comes to predicting how many yards the Patriots are going to give up, I don't really have a lot of confidence. My lack of confidence is not because of the defense, but due to the fact that we may score pretty quickly on offense giving opponents more possessions. Regardless I'll go out on a limb and say the Patriots will be in the top 15 for overall yards (315).
The other two defensive areas where I expect great things from this year's squad are 3rd downs and penalties. Last season the Patriots allowed their opponents to convert on third down 42% of the time. This season I see that dropping to 30% with most of the success coming on third and short.
Last season the Patriots had 110 defensive penalties which translated into 951 yards for their opponents. While I hope this number drops significantly, one really can't be certain with how the game is going to be called. Personally, I'll be happy if they avoid the dreaded "automatic first down" variety.
A few more random predictions:
When it comes to predicting how many yards the Patriots are going to give up, I don't really have a lot of confidence. My lack of confidence is not because of the defense, but due to the fact that we may score pretty quickly on offense giving opponents more possessions. Regardless I'll go out on a limb and say the Patriots will be in the top 15 for overall yards (315).
The other two defensive areas where I expect great things from this year's squad are 3rd downs and penalties. Last season the Patriots allowed their opponents to convert on third down 42% of the time. This season I see that dropping to 30% with most of the success coming on third and short.
Last season the Patriots had 110 defensive penalties which translated into 951 yards for their opponents. While I hope this number drops significantly, one really can't be certain with how the game is going to be called. Personally, I'll be happy if they avoid the dreaded "automatic first down" variety.
A few more random predictions:
- 23 interceptions
- 15 fumble recoveries
- 58 sacks
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