CAN THE PATRIOTS SLOW DOWN CHUBB ENOUGH TO GET TO 500?

Chubb fumbles for the scoop and score in 2019.

There you go, the major key to the Patriots getting back to 500 this week is slowing down Nick Chubb.  While it's a huge task, I do have faith that it can happen today.  

CHUBB VS. PATRIOTS PAST- Nick Chubb has only played one game against the Patriots.  Last year a positive Covid-19 test put him on ice for the matchup.  The Patriots won that game by scoring 45 unanswered points after giving up a touchdown on the opening drive.  So how did Chubb do in his one game against the Patriots.  Well, he ran the ball 20 times for a total of 131 yards.  While that gives him an average of 6.5 yards per carry, one would say that he had a solid game.   Of course if you look a little further down the stat sheet you'll see that he had 2 fumbles and lost both of them.  Was it something special that the Patriots did that day, or was Chubb just having a bad day?  Yes, it was a rainy day and the Patriots were punching it out intentionally, but those fumbles on back to back touches were huge and completely changed the outcome of the game.  The first was recovered for a touchdown by Hightower while the second happened right before Chubb made his way into the endzone.  So, how many times has Chubb fumbled the ball in his career?  A total of 6 times and 5 were lost.

CHUBB VS. PATRIOTS TODAY- Chubb spends more time in the backfield than any other running back in the NFL.  That extra portion of a second he appears to use to wear down defenses.  If the Patriots want to slow him down they can't get caught chasing him from behind or slowing down because it looks like he's about to be tackled.  Almost all of Chubb's yards come after contact.  The best way to be able to stop Chubb is by having a fresh defense on the field. 

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STOPS ON 3RD AND 4TH DOWNS- Last week the Patriots' defense made the Lions coaches look dumb for continuously going for it on 4th down.  This week they want to help themselves by preventing the Browns from moving the chains and staying out there.  The best way to keep a defense fresh is by getting off the field early and often without giving up points.

FLAWLESS SUBSTITUTIONS-  Getting called for too many men on the field or having to call a timeout to get the right personnel on the field are reasons why teams lose close games.  This has all of the markings of being a close one, so coaches and players need to avoid any freebies by knowing who is in and out of the game and making sure there aren't any lapses in communication.
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LONG OFFENSIVE DRIVES-  The Patriots' offense needs to play some complementary football today by matching any extended defensive drives with extended drives of their own.  While we all like a quick score, saving those calls for after a 3 and out might be more beneficial in the long run.      

TURNOVERS- The 2022 Browns have 4 giveaways and 4 takeaways this season.  The Patriots have 10 giveaways and 8 takeaways.  With Agholor not playing today, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Patriots will win today's turnover battle.  Will they get back to an even differential?  My crystal ball says yes.

SPECIAL TEAMS- Only being called upon to punt twice last week, Jake Bailey finally had a good game.  Hopefully, that continues today.  Punting for the Browns is lefty Corey Bojorquez.  Bojorquez is having a better year than Bailey as 9 of his 17 punts have been inside the 20.  Bojorquez has bounced around the NFL after spending his rookie summer with the Patriots.  When it comes to kicking, I'd have to give the advantage to the Patriots and Nick Folk.  Cleveland's kicker, Cade York, is having an up and down rookie year.  In this young season he has missed to PATs.  With the Browns up 30-17 and 1:55 left against the Jets, York missed a PAT.  The Jets ended up scoring two touchdowns for the win.